Background In many of the risk estimation algorithms for patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), heart rate and systolic blood pressure are key predictors. Yet, these parameters may also be altered by the applied medical treatment / circulatory support without concomitant improvement in microcirculation. Therefore, we aimed to investigate whether venous lactate level, a well-known marker of microcirculatory failure, may have an added prognostic value on top of the conventional variables of the “Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events” (GRACE) 2.0 model for predicting 30-day all-cause mortality of STEMI patients treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods In a prospective single-center registry study conducted from May 2020 through April 2021, we analyzed data of 323 cases. Venous blood gas analysis was performed in all patients at admission. Nested logistic regression models were built using the GRACE 2.0 score alone (base model) and with the addition of venous lactate level (expanded model) with 30-day all-cause mortality as primary outcome measure. Difference in model performance was analyzed by the likelihood ratio (LR) test and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Independence of the predictors was evaluated by the variance inflation factor (VIF). Discrimination and calibration was characterized by the c-statistic and calibration intercept / slope, respectively. Results Addition of lactate level to the GRACE 2.0 score improved the predictions of 30-day mortality significantly as assessed by both LR test (LR Chi-square = 8.7967, p = 0.0030) and IDI (IDI = 0.0685, p = 0.0402), suggesting that the expanded model may have better predictive ability than the GRACE 2.0 score. Furthermore, the VIF was 1.1203, indicating that the measured lactate values were independent of the calculated GRACE 2.0 scores. Conclusions Our results suggest that admission venous lactate level and the GRACE 2.0 score may be independent and additive predictors of 30-day all-cause mortality of STEMI patients treated with primary PCI.

Introduction: Opiates are traditionally used in STEMI patients to relieve pain, decrease pulmonary congestion, and anxiety. Yet, according to in vitro measurements, they delay and diminish the effect of all currently used oral platelet P2Y12 receptor antagonists. To be able to draw causal conclusions on the potential effects of opiates on clinical outcomes using real-world registries, the bias in treatment allocation may be minimized by propensity score methods. Therefore, we constructed a simple model of prehospital opiate administration using the database of the National Ambulance Service. Methods: We analyzed data of 10,139 subjects who were diagnosed with STEMI within 24 hours from symptom onset between November 2018 and June 2021. Patients with unsuccessful out-of-hospital CPR were excluded. Opiates were applied in 3,992 cases (39.4%). Besides onset-to-door time and need for CPR due to OHCA, basic demographic data like age and sex were studied as candidate predictors using logistic regression. Non-linearity of the continuous predictors was assessed by restricted cubic splines. Relative importance of the predictors was characterized by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Results: Overall model fit was good: likelihood ratio chi-square=610.40, d.f.=10, p<0.0001. Opiate use was strongly associated with onset-to-door-time (p<0.0001, AIC=333.83) and Wald testing for linearity suggested a non-linear relationship (p<0.0001) with the highest odds at about 120 minutes. Similarly, it was also highly (p<0.0001, AIC=193.78) and non-linearly (p<0.0001) related to age with an inverted U-shaped curve. Moreover, it was negatively dependent on the need for CPR (p=0.0019, AIC=7.64) and unrelated to the sex of the patient (p=0.15, AIC=0.09). Conclusion: Our propensity score model may help to evaluate the role of opiate administration on clinical outcomes of STEMI patients and underscores the importance of non-linear modeling of continuous predictors.

PurposeThe frailty concept has become a fundamental part of daily clinical practice. In this study our purpose was to create a risk estimation method with a comprehensive aspect of patients' preoperative frailty.Patients and methodsIn our prospective, observational study, patients were enrolled between September 2014 and August 2017 in the Department of Cardiac Surgery and Department of Vascular Surgery at Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary. A comprehensive frailty score was built from four main domains: biological, functional-nutritional, cognitive-psychological and sociological. Each domain contained numerous indicators. In addition, the EUROSCORE for cardiac patients and the Vascular POSSUM for vascular patients were calculated and adjusted for mortality.ResultsData from 228 participants were included for statistical analysis. A total of 161 patients underwent vascular surgery, and 67 underwent cardiac surgery. The preoperatively estimated mortality was not significantly different (median: 2.700, IQR (interquartile range): 2.000–4.900 vs. 3.000, IQR: 1.140–6.000, P = 0.266). The comprehensive frailty index was significantly different (0.400 (0.358–0.467) vs. 0.348 (0.303–0.460), P = 0.001). In deceased patients had elevated comprehensive frailty index (0.371 (0.316–0.445) vs. 0.423 (0.365–0.500), P < 0.001). In the multivariate Cox model an increased risk for mortality in quartiles 2, 3 and 4 compared with quartile 1 as a reference was found (AHR (95% CI): 1.974 (0.982–3.969), 2.306 (1.155–4.603), and 3.058 (1.556–6.010), respectively).ConclusionThe comprehensive frailty index developed in this study could be an important predictor of long-term mortality after vascular or cardiac surgery. Accurate frailty estimation could make the traditional risk scoring systems more accurate and reliable.