The adherence of patients to therapy is a crucial factor for successful HIV anti-retroviral therapy. Imperfect adherence may lead to treatment failure, which can cause the emergence of resistance within viral populations. We have developed a stochastic model that incorporates compartments of latently infected cells and virus genotypes with different susceptibilities to three simultaneously used drugs. With this model, we study the impact of several key parameters on the probability of treatment failure, i.e. insufficient viral suppression, and the emergence of resistance. Specifically, we consider the impact of drug dosage, drug half-lives, fitness costs for resistance, different basic reproductive numbers of the virus and the influence of pre-existing mutations under various levels of adherence. Furthermore, we also investigate the influence of different temporal distributions of non-adherent days (drug holidays) during a treatment. Factors that promote resistance evolution include a high reproductive number, extended drug holidays and poor adherence. Pre-existing mutations only have a substantial effect if they confer resistance against more than one drug. Overall, our study highlights the importance of the interactions between imperfect adherence, pharmacodynamics, pharmacokinetics and latently infected cells for our understanding of drug resistance and therapy failure in HIV anti-retroviral therapy.

Treatment failure after therapy of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) infections is an important challenge, especially when it coincides with de novo emergence of multi-drug-resistant TB (MDR-TB). We seek to explore possible causes why MDR-TB has been found to occur much more often in patients with a history of previous treatment. We develop a mathematical model of the replication of Mycobacterium tuberculosis within a patient reflecting the compartments of macrophages, granulomas, and open cavities as well as parameterizing the effects of drugs on the pathogen dynamics in these compartments. We use this model to study the influence of patient adherence to therapy and of common retreatment regimens on treatment outcome. As expected, the simulations show that treatment success increases with increasing adherence. However, treatment occasionally fails even under perfect adherence due to interpatient variability in pharmacological parameters. The risk of generating MDR de novo is highest between 40% and 80% adherence. Importantly, our simulations highlight the double-edged effect of retreatment: On the one hand, the recommended retreatment regimen increases the overall success rate compared to re-treating with the initial regimen. On the other hand, it increases the probability to accumulate more resistant genotypes. We conclude that treatment adherence is a key factor for a positive outcome, and that screening for resistant strains is advisable after treatment failure or relapse.

Background The rapid spread of azithromycin resistance in sexually transmitted Mycoplasma genitalium infections is a growing concern. It is not yet clear to what degree macrolide resistance in M. genitalium results from the emergence of de novo mutations or the transmission of resistant strains. Methods We developed a compartmental transmission model to investigate the contribution of de novo macrolide resistance mutations to the spread of antimicrobial-resistant M. genitalium. We fitted the model to resistance data from France, Denmark and Sweden, estimated the time point of azithromycin introduction and the rates at which infected individuals receive treatment, and projected the future spread of resistance. Results The high probability of de novo resistance in M. genitalium accelerates the early spread of antimicrobial resistance. The relative contribution of de novo resistance subsequently decreases, and the spread of resistant infections in France, Denmark and Sweden is now mainly driven by transmitted resistance. If treatment with single-dose azithromycin continues at current rates, macrolide-resistant M. genitalium infections will reach 25% (95% confidence interval, CI [9–30]%) in France, 84% (95% CI [36–98]%) in Denmark and 62% (95% CI [48–76]%) in Sweden by 2025. Conclusions Blind treatment of urethritis with single-dose azithromycin continues to select for the spread of macrolide resistant M. genitalium. Clinical management strategies for M. genitalium should limit the unnecessary use of macrolides.

The rapid spread of azithromycin resistance in sexually transmitted infections caused by Mycoplasma genitalium is a growing concern. It is not yet clear to what degree macrolide resistance in M. genitalium results from the emergence of de novo mutations or the transmission of resistant strains. We analysed epidemiological data and developed a compartmental model to investigate the contribution of de novo macrolide resistance mutations to the spread of antimicrobial resistant M.genitalium. We fitted the model to data from France, Sweden and Denmark and estimated treatment rates and the time point of azithromycin introduction. In a meta-analysis of six studies, we estimated that de novo resistance develops in 12% (95% CI 7 -17%, I 2 44%) of M. genitalium infections treated with 1g azithromycin.Our model shows that the high probability of de novo resistance is responsible for the observed rapid spread of antimicrobial resistant M. genitalium. The estimated per capita treatment rate in France was lower than in Denmark and Sweden but confidence intervals for the three estimates overlap. The estimated dates of introduction of azithromycin in each country are consistent with published reports.