It is known that the parameters in the deterministic and stochastic SEIR epidemic models are structurally identifiable. For example, from knowledge of the infected population time series I(t) during the entire epidemic, the parameters can be successfully estimated. In this article we observe that estimation will fail in practice if only infected case data during the early part of the epidemic (pre-peak) is available. This fact can be explained using a long-known phenomenon called dynamical compensation. We use this concept to derive an unidentifiability manifold in the parameter space of SEIR that consists of parameters indistin-guishable to I(t) early in the epidemic. Thus, identifiability depends on the extent of the system trajectory that is available for observation. Although the existence of the unidentifiability manifold obstructs the ability to exactly determine the parameters, we suggest that it may be useful for uncertainty quantification purposes. A variant of SEIR recently proposed for COVID-19 modeling is also analyzed, and an analogous unidentifiability surface is derived.

It is known that the parameters in the deterministic and stochastic SEIR epidemic models are structurally identifiable. For example, from knowledge of the infected population time series I(t) during the entire epidemic, the parameters can be successfully estimated. In this article we observe that estimation will fail in practice if only infected case data during the early part of the epidemic (pre-peak) is available. This fact can be explained using a long-known phenomenon called dynamical compensation. We use this concept to derive an unidentifiability manifold in the parameter space of SEIR that consists of parameters indistinguishable to I(t) early in the epidemic. Thus, identifiability depends on the extent of the system trajectory that is available for observation. Although the existence of the unidentifiability manifold obstructs the ability to exactly determine the parameters, we suggest that it may be useful for uncertainty quantification purposes. A variant of SEIR recently proposed for COVID-19 modeling is also analyzed, and an analogous unidentifiability surface is derived.

Despite the popularity of drones and their relatively simple operation, the underlying control algorithms can be difficult to design due to the drones’ underactuation and highly nonlinear properties. This paper focuses on position and orientation control of drones to address challenges such as path and edge tracking, and disturbance rejection. The adaptive function approximation technique control method is used to control an underactuated and nonlinear drone. The controller utilizes reference attitude signals, that are derived from a proportional derivative (PD) linear feedback control methodology. To avoid analytic expressions for the reference attitude velocities, we employ a continuous-time Kalman filter based on a model of the measurement signal — which is derived by passing the reference attitude position through a low-pass signal differentiator — as a second-order Newtonian system. Stability of the closed loop system is proven using a Lyapunov function. Our design methodology simplifies the control process by requiring only a few tuning variables, while being robust to time-varying and time-invariant uncertainties with unknown variation bounds, and avoids the requirement for the knowledge of the dynamic equation that governs the attitude of the drone. Three different scenarios are simulated and our control method shows better accuracy than the proportional-derivative controller in terms of edge tracking and disturbance rejection.

The unscented transform uses a weighted set of samples called sigma points to propagate the means and covariances of nonlinear transformations of random variables. However, unscented transforms developed using either the Gaussian assumption or a minimum set of sigma points typically fall short when the random variable is not Gaussian distributed and the nonlinearities are substantial. In this paper, we develop the generalized unscented transform (GenUT), which uses adaptable sigma points that can be positively constrained, and accurately approximates the mean, covariance, and skewness of an independent random vector of most probability distributions, while being able to partially approximate the kurtosis. For correlated random vectors, the GenUT can accurately approximate the mean and covariance. In addition to its superior accuracy in propagating means and covariances, the GenUT uses the same order of calculations as most unscented transforms that guarantee thirdorder accuracy, which makes it applicable to a wide variety of applications, including the assimilation of observations in the modeling of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19.

This paper develops a new function approximation technique (FAT)-based adaptive controller for the control of rigid robots called the adaptive passivity function approximation technique (APFAT) controller. This controller utilizes the passivity-based approach and simplifies the FAT controller design by eliminating the need for simultaneous estimation of the robot’s inertia matrix, Coriolis matrix, and gravity vector. The controller achieves its simplicity by treating the product of the regressor matrix and parameter vector as an unknown time-varying function to be approximated. The controller can be implemented in robots where the dynamic equations of motion are unknown. The stability of the controller is verified with Lyapunov functions by taking advantage of the passivity property of the robot dynamics. Simulation results on a three degree-of-freedom (DOF) PUMA500 robot demonstrate the ability to track reference trajectories using reasonable control signals when the inertia matrix, Coriolis matrix, and gravity vector are unavailable.