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The concept of Stranded Assets has been used for nearly 50 years across many sectors, most recently it has been a focus of investment portfolios in light of the possible impacts of climate change. However, to date there has been no in-depth determination of the impact of Stranded Assets for rural water supply, despite international development targets from Rio, through Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and now the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The limiting factor for carrying out such an assessment is the requirement of a full and detailed asset register recording all rural water supplies in a country. The Scottish Government Climate Justice Fund Water Futures Programme, in collaboration with the Government of Malawi, is undertaking a comprehensive asset audit across Malawi, and this paper introduces the concept of Stranded Assets for the rural water supply sector using Malawi as an exemplar. Here, we demonstrate how significant change in the implementation strategy for SDGs compared to the MDGs is needed to reduce the potential for Stranded Assets and meet its ultimate aim.

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The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive timescale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this timescale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a ‘knowledge-value’ gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socio-economic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development – demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors – this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value and co-generation of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting timescale.

No abstract