Key Results: Three Chinese radiologists had a sensitivity of 72%, 72% and 94% and specificity of 94%, 88% and 24% in differentiating 219 COVID-19 from 205 non-COVID-19 pneumonia.  Four United States radiologists had a sensitivity of 93%, 83%, 73% and 73% and specificity of 100%, 93%, 93% and 100%.  The most discriminating features for COVID-19 pneumonia included a peripheral distribution (80% vs. 57%, p<0.001), ground-glass opacity (91% vs. 68%, p<0.001) and vascular thickening (58% vs. 22%, p<0.001). Manuscript type: original researchThe total number of words of the manuscript, including entire text from title page to tables and references: 4364 This copy is for personal use only. To order printed copies, contact reprints@rsna.org I n P r e s s Performance of radiologists in differentiating COVID-19 from viral pneumonia on chest CT Summary: Radiologists had high specificity but moderate sensitivity in differentiating COVID-19 from viral pneumonia on chest CT. Key Results:  Three Chinese radiologists had sensitivities of 72%, 72% and 94% and specificities of 94%, 88% and 24% in differentiating 219 COVID-19 from 205 non-COVID-19 pneumonia.  Four United States radiologists had sensitivities of 93%, 83%, 73% and 73% and specificities of 100%, 93%, 93% and 100%.  The most discriminating features for COVID-19 pneumonia included a peripheral distribution (80% vs. 57%, p<0.001), ground-glass opacity (91% vs. 68%, p<0.001) and vascular thickening (58% vs. 22%, p<0.001). Abstract Background: Despite its high sensitivity in diagnosing COVID-19 in a screening population, chest CT appearances of COVID 19 pneumonia are thought to be non-specific. Purpose: To assess the performance of United States (U.S.) and Chinese radiologists in differentiating COVID-19 from viral pneumonia on chest CT. Methods: A total of 219 patients with both positive COVID-19 by RT-PCR and abnormal chest CT findings were retrospectively identified from 7 Chinese hospitals in Hunan Providence, China from January 6 to February 20, 2020. A total of 205 patients with positive Respiratory Pathogen Panel for viral pneumonia and CT findings consistent with or highly suspicious for pneumonia by original radiology interpretation within 7 days of each other were identified from Rhode Island Hospital in Providence, RI. Three Chinese radiologists blindly reviewed all chest CTs (n=424) to differentiate COVID-19 from viral pneumonia. A sample of 58 age-matched cases was randomly selected and evaluated by 4 U.S. radiologists in a similar fashion. Different CT features were recorded and compared between the two groups. Results: For all chest CTs, three Chinese radiologists correctly differentiated COVID-19 from non-COVID-19 pneumonia 83% (350/424), 80% (338/424), and 60% (255/424) of the time, respectively. The seven radiologists had sensitivities of 80%, 67%, 97%, 93%, 83%, 73% and 70% and specificities of 100%, 93%, 7%, 100%, 93%, 93%, 100%. Compared to non-COVID-19 pneumonia, COVID-19 pneumonia was more likely to have a peripheral distribution (80% vs. 57%, p...

Background Chest x-ray is a relatively accessible, inexpensive, fast imaging modality that might be valuable in the prognostication of patients with COVID-19. We aimed to develop and evaluate an artificial intelligence system using chest x-rays and clinical data to predict disease severity and progression in patients with COVID-19. Methods We did a retrospective study in multiple hospitals in the University of Pennsylvania Health System in Philadelphia, PA, USA, and Brown University affiliated hospitals in Providence, RI, USA. Patients who presented to a hospital in the University of Pennsylvania Health System via the emergency department, with a diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by RT-PCR and with an available chest x-ray from their initial presentation or admission, were retrospectively identified and randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets (7:1:2). Using the chest x-rays as input to an EfficientNet deep neural network and clinical data, models were trained to predict the binary outcome of disease severity (ie, critical or non-critical). The deep-learning features extracted from the model and clinical data were used to build time-to-event models to predict the risk of disease progression. The models were externally tested on patients who presented to an independent multicentre institution, Brown University affiliated hospitals, and compared with severity scores provided by radiologists. Findings 1834 patients who presented via the University of Pennsylvania Health System between March 9 and July 20, 2020, were identified and assigned to the model training (n=1285), validation (n=183), or testing (n=366) sets. 475 patients who presented via the Brown University affiliated hospitals between March 1 and July 18, 2020, were identified for external testing of the models. When chest x-rays were added to clinical data for severity prediction, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) increased from 0·821 (95% CI 0·796–0·828) to 0·846 (0·815–0·852; p<0·0001) on internal testing and 0·731 (0·712–0·738) to 0·792 (0·780–0 ·803; p<0·0001) on external testing. When deep-learning features were added to clinical data for progression prediction, the concordance index (C-index) increased from 0·769 (0·755–0·786) to 0·805 (0·800–0·820; p<0·0001) on internal testing and 0·707 (0·695–0·729) to 0·752 (0·739–0·764; p<0·0001) on external testing. The image and clinical data combined model had significantly better prognostic performance than combined severity scores and clinical data on internal testing (C-index 0·805 vs 0·781; p=0·0002) and external testing (C-inde 0·752 vs 0·715; p<0·0001). Interpretation In patients with COVID-19, artificial intelligence based on chest x-rays had better prognostic performance than clinical data or radiologist-derived severity scores. Using artificial intelligence, chest x-rays can augment clinical data i...

Background About 10–20% of patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection progressed to severe illness within a week or so after initially diagnosed as mild infection. Identification of this subgroup of patients was crucial for early aggressive intervention to improve survival. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether computer tomography (CT) - derived measurements of body composition such as myosteatosis indicating fat deposition inside the muscles could be used to predict the risk of transition to severe illness in patients with initial diagnosis of mild COVID-19 infection. Methods Patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection presenting initially as having the mild common-subtype illness were retrospectively recruited between January 21, 2020 and February 19, 2020. CT-derived body composition measurements were obtained from the initial chest CT images at the level of the twelfth thoracic vertebra (T12) and were used to build models to predict the risk of transition. A myosteatosis nomogram was constructed using multivariate logistic regression incorporating both clinical variables and myosteatosis measurements. The performance of the prediction models was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve including the area under the curve (AUC). The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by discrimination, calibration curve, and decision curve. Results A total of 234 patients were included in this study. Thirty-one of the enrolled patients transitioned to severe illness. Myosteatosis measurements including SM-RA (skeletal muscle radiation attenuation) and SMFI (skeletal muscle fat index) score fitted with SMFI, age and gender, were significantly associated with risk of transition for both the training and validation cohorts (P < 0.01). The nomogram combining the SM-RA, SMFI score and clinical model improved prediction for the transition risk with an AUC of 0.85 [95% CI, 0.75 to 0.95] for the training cohort and 0.84 [95% CI, 0.71 to 0.97] for the validation cohort, as compared to the nomogram of the clinical model with AUC of 0.75 and 0.74 for the training and validation cohorts respectively. Favorable clinical utility was observed using decision curve analysis. Conclusion We found CT-derived measurements of thoracic myosteatosis to be associated with higher risk of transition to severe illness in patients affected by COVID-19 who presented initially as having the mild common-subtype infection. Our study showed the relevance of skeletal muscle examination in the overall assessment of disease progression and prognosis of patients with COVID-19 infection.

Previous studies have suggested that resting-state functional connectivity plays a central role in the physiopathology of major depressive disorder (MDD). However, the individualized diagnosis of MDD based on resting-state functional connectivity is still unclear, especially in first episode drug-naive patients with MDD. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging was enrolled from 30 first episode drug-naive patients with MDD and age- and gender-matched 31 healthy controls. Whole brain functional connectivity was computed and viewed as classification features. Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) was performed to discriminate patients with MDD from controls. The experimental results exhibited a correct classification rate of 82.25% (p < 0.001) with sensitivity of 83.87% and specificity of 80.64%. Almost all of the consensus connections (125/128) were cross-network interaction among default mode network (DMN), salience network (SN), central executive network (CEN), visual cortex network (VN), Cerebellum and Other. Moreover, the supramarginal gyrus exhibited high discriminative power in classification. Our findings suggested cross-network interaction can be used as an effective biomarker for MDD clinical diagnosis, which may reveal the potential pathological mechanism for major depression. The current study further confirmed reliable application of MVPA in discriminating MDD patients from healthy controls.

Objective To develop a machine learning (ML) pipeline based on radiomics to predict Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity and the future deterioration to critical illness using CT and clinical variables. Materials and Methods Clinical data were collected from 981 patients from a multi-institutional international cohort with real-time polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19. Radiomics features were extracted from chest CT of the patients. The data of the cohort were randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets using a 7:1:2 ratio. A ML pipeline consisting of a model to predict severity and time-to-event model to predict progression to critical illness were trained on radiomics features and clinical variables. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC), concordance index (C-index), and time-dependent ROC-AUC were calculated to determine model performance, which was compared with consensus CT severity scores obtained by visual interpretation by radiologists. Results Among 981 patients with confirmed COVID-19, 274 patients developed critical illness. Radiomics features and clinical variables resulted in the best performance for the prediction of disease severity with a highest test ROC-AUC of 0.76 compared with 0.70 (0.76 vs. 0.70, p = 0.023) for visual CT severity score and clinical variables. The progression prediction model achieved a test C-index of 0.868 when it was based on the combination of CT radiomics and clinical variables compared with 0.767 when based on CT radiomics features alone ( p < 0.001), 0.847 when based on clinical variables alone ( p = 0.110), and 0.860 when based on the combination of visual CT severity scores and clinical variables ( p = 0.549). Furthermore, the model based on the combination of CT radiomics and clinical variables achieved time-dependent ROC-AUCs of 0.897, 0.933, and 0.927 for the prediction of progression risks at 3, 5 and 7 days, respectively. Conclusion CT radiomics features combined with clinical variables were predictive of COVID-19 severity and progression to critical illness with fairly high accuracy.