No abstract

The contribution rate of equipment system-of-systems architecture (ESoSA) is an important index to evaluate the equipment update, development, and architecture optimization. Since the traditional ESoSA contribution rate evaluation method does not make full use of the fuzzy information and uncertain information in the equipment system-of-systems (ESoS), and the Bayesian network is an effective tool to solve the uncertain information, a new ESoSA contribution rate evaluation method based on the fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) is proposed. Firstly, based on the operation loop theory, an ESoSA is constructed considering three aspects: reconnaissance equipment, decision equipment, and strike equipment. Next, the fuzzy set theory is introduced to construct the FBN of ESoSA to deal with fuzzy information and uncertain information. Furthermore, the fuzzy importance index of the root node of the FBN is used to calculate the contribution rate of the ESoSA, and the ESoSA contribution rate evaluation model based on the root node fuzzy importance is established. Finally, the feasibility and rationality of this method are validated via an empirical case study of aviation ESoSA. Compared with traditional methods, the evaluation method based on FBN takes various failure states of equipment into consideration, is free of acquiring accurate probability of traditional equipment failure, and models the uncertainty of the relationship between equipment. The proposed method not only supplements and improves the ESoSA contribution rate assessment method, but also broadens the application scope of the Bayesian network.

No abstract

In-depth study on the cooperative characteristics of modern terrorist attacks and prediction of their development trend is helpful to control risks, strengthen regional security management and improve the effectiveness of counter-terrorism. Based on the data of 192,212 terrorist attacks from 1970 to 2018 provided by the Global Terrorism Database, this paper selects cooperative terrorist attacks, analyzes their distribution regions, proportion changes and other characteristics, and further constructs the cooperative network of terrorist organizations, and finds that the connection relationship continues to become complicated. By constructing a time series model, this paper predicts the trend change of the risk of cooperative terrorist attacks, and obtains the theoretical prediction of two small increases in cooperative terrorist attacks in 10 years. Finally, the risk management of dealing with terrorism cooperation is put forward.