Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3.

Despite the increasing influence of human activities on water resources in our current Anthropocene era, the impacts of these activities on the duration, rate and timing of the recovery of drought events, known as the drought termination phase, remain unknown. Here, we present the first assessment of how different human activities (i.e. water abstractions, reservoirs, water transfers) affect drought termination. Six case studies in Europe were used to analyse the human influence on streamflow drought termination characteristics. For all case studies, we compared the drought and drought termination characteristics derived from a human-influenced time series of streamflow (observation data) and a naturalised time series (modelled data) for the same period. Overall, results clearly demonstrate the influence of human activities on drought terminations in all the studied catchments. Groundwater abstractions, reservoirs and mixed influences were all found to increase the average duration of drought termination, whereas water transfers into the catchment decreased drought termination duration. Results also show that average drought termination rates increased in all case studies due to the human influence. Furthermore, start and end months of the termination phase were more skewed to certain months in human-influenced data than in the naturalised situation. Future research could extend this new knowledge by looking to add further case studies and covering different human activities to gain a wider understanding on how human actions modify hydrological droughts and their recovery. Furthering this work could also help to improve the forecasting of drought recovery in the Anthropocene, which is important for informing drought management decisions.

Abstract. Drought events and their impacts vary spatially and temporally due to diverse pedo-climatic and hydrologic conditions, as well as variations in exposure and vulnerability, such as demographics and response actions. While hazard severity and frequency of past drought events have been studied in detail, little is known about the effect of drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how the hazard is perceived by relevant stakeholders. In a continental study, we characterised and assessed the impacts and the perceptions of two recent drought events (2018 and 2019) in Europe and examined the relationship between management strategies and drought perception, hazard, and impact. The study was based on a pan-European survey involving national representatives from 28 countries and relevant stakeholders responding to a standard questionnaire. The survey focused on collecting information on stakeholders' perceptions of drought, impacts on water resources and beyond, water availability, and current drought management strategies on national and regional scales. The survey results were compared with the actual drought hazard information registered by the European Drought Observatory (EDO) for 2018 and 2019. The results highlighted high diversity in drought perception across different countries and in values of the implemented drought management strategies to alleviate impacts by increasing national and sub-national awareness and resilience. The study identifies an urgent need to further reduce drought impacts by constructing and implementing a European macro-level drought governance approach, such as a directive, which would strengthen national drought management and mitigate damage to human and natural assets.

Increasing meteorological drought frequency and rising water demand drive groundwater exploitation beyond sustainable limits. In heavily-stressed aquifers mitigation strategies, such as Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR), are needed to restore depleted groundwater storage. MAR is also designed to overcome short dry periods. However, wider impacts of MAR as a drought mitigation strategy remain to be quantified. The objective of this study is to assess impacts of MAR in heavily-stressed aquifers using a case study of the Central Valley in California (USA). The novelty of this study lies in its analytical approach based on long-term observational data of precipitation, groundwater levels, and MAR operations. The impact of MAR operations is assessed regionally and for different temporal scales. Results show spatially-coherent clusters of groundwater level time series in the Central Valley representing three main patterns that manifest themselves in different groundwater drought characteristics and long-term trends. The first regional pattern shows lengthened groundwater droughts and declining groundwater levels over time, indicating effects of over abstraction in aquifer sections without MAR. The second regional pattern shows reduced groundwater drought duration and magnitude related to periodically rising groundwater levels, showing short-term MAR impacts. The third regional pattern shows alleviated groundwater droughts and groundwater levels show a long-term rise, representing long-term MAR impacts. Mitigated groundwater droughts and long-term rise in groundwater levels reveal the value of long-term MAR operations and their contribution toward sustainable groundwater management. Increased institutional support is recommended to ensure longevity of MAR and thereby amplify its success as regional drought mitigation strategy in heavily-stressed aquifers.