Summary Background Improvements to prognostic models in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer have the potential to augment clinical trial design and guide treatment strategies. In partnership with Project Data Sphere, a not-for-profit initiative allowing data from cancer clinical trials to be shared broadly with researchers, we designed an open-data, crowdsourced, DREAM (Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods) challenge to not only identify a better prognostic model for prediction of survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer but also engage a community of international data scientists to study this disease. Methods Data from the comparator arms of four phase 3 clinical trials in first-line metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were obtained from Project Data Sphere, comprising 476 patients treated with docetaxel and prednisone from the ASCENT2 trial, 526 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone, and placebo in the MAINSAIL trial, 598 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone or prednisolone, and placebo in the VENICE trial, and 470 patients treated with docetaxel and placebo in the ENTHUSE 33 trial. Datasets consisting of more than 150 clinical variables were curated centrally, including demographics, laboratory values, medical history, lesion sites, and previous treatments. Data from ASCENT2, MAINSAIL, and VENICE were released publicly to be used as training data to predict the outcome of interest—namely, overall survival. Clinical data were also released for ENTHUSE 33, but data for outcome variables (overall survival and event status) were hidden from the challenge participants so that ENTHUSE 33 could be used for independent validation. Methods were evaluated using the integrated time-dependent area under the curve (iAUC). The reference model, based on eight clinical variables and a penalised Cox proportional-hazards model, was used to compare method performance. Further validation was done using data from a fifth trial—ENTHUSE M1—in which 266 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were treated with placebo alone. Findings 50 independent methods were developed to predict overall survival and were evaluated through the DREAM challenge. The top performer was based on an ensemble of penalised Cox regression models (ePCR), which uniquely identified predictive interaction effects with immune biomarkers and markers of hepatic and renal function. Overall, ePCR outperformed all other methods (iAUC 0·791; Bayes factor >5) and surpassed the reference model (iAUC 0·743; Bayes factor >20). Both the ePCR model and reference models stratified patients in the ENTHUSE 33 trial into high-risk and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival (ePCR: hazard ratio 3·32, 95% CI 2·39–4·62, p<0·0001; reference model: 2·56, 1·85–3·53, p<0·0001). The new model was validated further on the ENTHUSE M1 cohort with similarly high performance (iAUC 0·768). Meta-analysis across all methods confirmed previously identified...

Development of machine learning (ML) workflows is a tedious process of iterative experimentation: developers repeatedly make changes to workflows until the desired accuracy is attained. We describe our vision for a "human-in-the-loop" ML system that accelerates this process: by intelligently tracking changes and intermediate results over time, such a system can enable rapid iteration, quick responsive feedback, introspection and debugging, and background execution and automation. We finally describe Helix, our preliminary attempt at such a system that has already led to speedups of upto 10× on typical iterative workflows against competing systems.

Efforts to make machine learning more widely accessible have led to a rapid increase in Auto-ML tools that aim to automate the process of training and deploying machine learning. To understand how Auto-ML tools are used in practice today, we performed a qualitative study with participants ranging from novice hobbyists to industry researchers who use Auto-ML tools. We present insights into the benefits and deficiencies of existing tools, as well as the respective roles of the human and automation in ML workflows. Finally, we discuss design implications for the future of Auto-ML tool development. We argue that instead of full automation being the ultimate goal of Auto-ML, designers of these tools should focus on supporting a partnership between the user and the Auto-ML tool. This means that a range of Auto-ML tools will need to be developed to support varying user goals such as simplicity, reproducibility, and reliability.

Dataframes are a popular abstraction to represent, prepare, and analyze data. Despite the remarkable success of dataframe libraries in R and Python, dataframes face performance issues even on moderately large datasets. Moreover, there is significant ambiguity regarding dataframe semantics. In this paper we lay out a vision and roadmap for scalable dataframe systems. To demonstrate the potential in this area, we report on our experience building Modin, a scaled-up implementation of the most widely-used and complex dataframe API today, Python's pandas. With pandas as a reference, we propose a simple data model and algebra for dataframes to ground discussion in the field. Given this foundation, we lay out an agenda of open research opportunities where the distinct features of dataframes will require extending the state of the art in many dimensions of data management. We discuss the implications of signature dataframe features including flexible schemas, ordering, row/column equivalence, and data/metadata fluidity, as well as the piecemeal, trial-and-error-based approach to interacting with dataframes.