Shallow estuaries, bays, and lagoons are generally considered hot spots of ocean productivity that often adjust rapidly to seasonal variations in atmospheric temperatures. During spring when biological reproductive processes begin in the temperate zones, regional climate variability can be immense and uncovering a non-linear biological response, such as fish recruitment to changing temperature regimes might be challenging. Using herring as a paradigm for a response of coastal spring productivity to regional climate drivers, we demonstrated how the annual timing of spawning periods can significantly affect the reproductive success of spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) in the western Baltic Sea. An investigation of spawning phenology in consecutive years indicated a temperature threshold range of 3.5–4.5°C triggering initial spawning in the coastal zone. Based on this finding, we analyzed the timing of larval hatching peaks, larval survival and recruitment to the adult population relative to multi-decadal time-series of seasonal sea-surface temperatures. The results revealed that the late seasonal onset of cold periods the corresponding elongation of the period where larvae hatch from the eggs and early larval hatching peaks significantly reduced larval production in a coastal nursery area and finally lead to a reduced abundance of juveniles in the entire distribution area. Using a combination of field research and time series analysis, we presented precedence for shifting regional winter regimes providing a present-day stressor to reproductive capacity of a central component of the coastal food web.

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General concepts of larval fish ecology in temperate oceans predominantly associate dispersal and survival to exogenous mechanisms such as passive drift along ocean currents. However, for tropical reef fish larvae and species in inland freshwater systems behavioural aspects of habitat selection are evidently important components of dispersal. This study is focused on larval Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) distribution in a Baltic Sea retention area, free of lunar tides and directed current regimes, considered as a natural mesocosm. A Lorenz curve originally applied in socio-economics to describe demographic income distribution was adapted to a 20 year time-series of weekly larval herring distribution, revealing size-dependent spatial homogeneity. Additional quantitative sampling of distinct larval development stages across pelagic and littoral areas uncovered a loop in habitat use during larval ontogeny, revealing a key role of shallow littoral waters. With increasing rates of coastal change, our findings emphasize the importance of the littoral zone when considering reproduction of pelagic, ocean-going fish species; highlighting a need for more sensitive management of regional coastal zones.

Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) migrates from offshore to coastal areas to spawn and their eggs and larvae may substantially increase prey resources for resident predators. We combined an in situ predator exclusion experiment using eggs naturally spawned on submerged aquatic vegetation and field observations of predator abundance to estimate the magnitude of predation mortality of herring eggs. During our predator exclusion experiment, performed in an important spawning ground in the southwest Baltic Sea, 20% of the herring eggs were consumed resulting in an extrapolated predation of 42% of all eggs between spawning and hatch. Abundance and stomach content analyses indicated that one predator (threespine stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus) was responsible for the majority of the predation impact. Predation mortality estimates from this in situ study were more than 10-fold higher than those of an empirical egg predation model for the same predator in the same region. Our findings highlight the potential of resident predators to regulate the survival of early life stages of ocean-going fishes that rely on the nursery functions of inshore transitional waters.

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