Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called 'weather bombs') occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over
This article sets the near-surface meteorological conditions during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition in the context of the interannual variability and extremes within the past 4 decades. Hourly ERA5 reanalysis data for the Polarstern trajectory for 1979–2020 are analyzed. The conditions were relatively normal given that they were mostly within the interquartile range of the preceding 4 decades. Nevertheless, some anomalous and even record-breaking conditions did occur, particularly during synoptic events. Extreme cases of warm, moist air transported from the northern North Atlantic or northwestern Siberia into the Arctic were identified from late fall until early spring. Daily temperature and total column water vapor were classified as being among the top-ranking warmest/wettest days or even record-breaking based on the full record. Associated with this, the longwave radiative fluxes at the surface were extremely anomalous for these winter cases. The winter and spring period was characterized by more frequent storm events and median cyclone intensity ranking in the top 25th percentile of the full record. During summer, near melting point conditions were more than a month longer than usual, and the July and August 2020 mean conditions were the all-time warmest and wettest. These record conditions near the Polarstern were embedded in large positive temperature and moisture anomalies over the whole central Arctic. In contrast, unusually cold conditions occurred during the beginning of November 2019 and in early March 2020, related to the Arctic Oscillation. In March, this was linked with anomalously strong and persistent northerly winds associated with frequent cyclone occurrence to the southeast of the Polarstern.
We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979-2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and backtrajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes. Relationships during opposite conditions of warm Europe/cold Arctic are also significant. Correlations have become consistently stronger since 1998. Large-
a b s t r a c tA global model of the atmosphere is presented governed by the shallow water equations and discretized by a Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin method on an unstructured triangular grid. The shallow water equations on the sphere, a two-dimensional surface in R 3 , are locally represented in terms of spherical triangular coordinates, the appropriate local coordinate mappings on triangles. On every triangular grid element, this leads to a twodimensional representation of tangential momentum and therefore only two discrete momentum equations.The discontinuous Galerkin method consists of an integral formulation which requires both area (elements) and line (element faces) integrals. Here, we use a Rusanov numerical flux to resolve the discontinuous fluxes at the element faces. A strong stability-preserving third-order Runge-Kutta method is applied for the time discretization. The polynomial space of order k on each curved triangle of the grid is characterized by a Lagrange basis and requires high-order quadature rules for the integration over elements and element faces. For the presented method no mass matrix inversion is necessary, except in a preprocessing step.The validation of the atmospheric model has been done considering standard tests from Williamson et al. [D.L. Williamson, J.B. Drake, J.J. Hack, R. Jakob, P.N. Swarztrauber, A standard test set for numerical approximations to the shallow water equations in spherical geometry, J. Comput. Phys. 102 (1992) 211-224], unsteady analytical solutions of the nonlinear shallow water equations and a barotropic instability caused by an initial perturbation of a jet stream. A convergence rate of OðDx kþ1 Þ was observed in the model experiments. Furthermore, a numerical experiment is presented, for which the third-order time-integration method limits the model error. Thus, the time step Dt is restricted by both the CFL-condition and accuracy demands. Conservation of mass was shown up to machine precision and energy conservation converges for both increasing grid resolution and increasing polynomial order k.
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