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This paper quantitatively investigates the Depression of the 1890s and the 1907 recession in the United States. Business Cycle Accounting decomposes economic fluctuations into their contributing factors. The results suggest that both the 1890s and the 1907 recessions were primarily caused by factors that affect the efficiency wedge, i.e. slumps in the economy's factor productivity. Distortions to the labor wedge played a less important role. Models with financial market frictions that translate into the efficiency wedge are the most promising candidates for explaining the recessionary episodes.

This paper analyzes the effect of the sectoral composition of government spending on the stability properties of a two-sector economy with a progressive tax structure. The results suggest that indeterminacy is more likely to occur if the fraction of government spending on consumption goods increases. This study also finds that, under progressive taxation, a sufficiently high public-consumption share is needed to generate indeterminacy. It is shown that, with the benchmark parameterization, a higher fraction of government spending on consumption goods needs to be implemented with a more progressive tax scheme to stabilize the economy. Moreover, it is emphasized that belief-driven economic fluctuations may indeed be a feature of the U.S. economy.