The tornado events of 3 May 1999 within the county warning area of the Norman, Oklahoma, office of the National Weather Service are reviewed, emphasizing the challenges associated with obtaining accurate information about the existence, timing, location, and intensity of individual tornadoes. Accurate documentation of tornado and other hazardous weather events is critical to research, is needed for operational assessments, and is important for developing hazard mitigation strategies. The situation following this major event was unusual because of the high concentration of meteorologists in the area, relative to most parts of the United States. As a result of this relative abundance of resources, it is likely that these tornadoes were reasonably well documented. Despite this unique situation in central Oklahoma, it is argued that this event also provides evidence of a national need for a rapid-response scientific and engineering survey team to provide documentation of major hazardous weather events before cleanup destroys important evidence.
A global increase in megafires has occurred since the mid-1990s. Defined as wildfires that burn more than 405 km2 (100 000 ac), megafires are complex phenomena with wide ranging societal impacts. In the United States, scientific literature and wildland fire policy has traditionally focused upon megafires in forests of the American West. However, megafires also pose a significant threat to life and property on the southern Great Plains. The southern Great Plains is characterized by grass-dominated prairie and is climatologically prone to dry and windy weather, which facilitates extreme rates of fire spread leading to some of the largest wildfires in North America. This study documents 16 megafires on the plains of New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas between 2006 and 2018. Most of these megafires occurred during southern Great Plains wildfire outbreaks, or plains firestorms, characterized by fire-effective low-level thermal ridges. Fuel and weather conditions supporting the 2006–2018 plains megafires are quantified by antecedent precipitation anomalies, fuel moisture, Energy Release Component, relative humidity, sustained wind speed, and temperature percentiles. Three modes of plains megafire evolution are identified by the analyses as short-duration, long-duration, and hybrid. Abrupt wind shifts and carryover fire in heavy dead fuels dictate megafire potential and evolutionary type. The presented analyses define favorable fuel and weather conditions that allow forecasters to discriminate megafire environments from typical plains fire episodes. Further, predictive signals for plains megafire conceptual model types can improve anticipation of southern Great Plains megafire evolution, threats, and management strategies.
A sample of damage-surveyed tornadoes in the contiguous United States (2009–2017), containing specific wind-speed estimates from damage indicators (DIs) within the Damage Assessment Toolkit dataset, were linked to radar-observed circulations using the nearest WSR-88D data in Part I of this work. The maximum wind speed associated with the highest-rated DI for each radar scan, corresponding 0.5° tilt angle rotational velocity (Vrot), significant tornado parameter (STP), and National Weather Service (NWS) convective impact-based warning (IBW) type, are analyzed herein for the sample of cases in Part I and an independent case sample from parts of 2019–2020. As Vrot, and STP both increase, peak DI-estimated wind speeds and IBW warning type also tend to increase. Different combinations of Vrot, STP, and population density —related to ranges of peak DI wind speed— exhibited a strong ability to discriminate across the tornado damage intensity spectrum. Furthermore, longer duration of high Vrot (i.e., ≥ 70 kt) in significant tornado environments (i.e., STP ≥ 6) corresponds to increasing chances that DIs will reveal the occurrence of an intense tornado (i.e., EF3+). These findings were corroborated via the independent sample from parts of 2019–2020, and can be applied in a real-time operational setting to assist in determining a potential range of wind speeds. This work provides evidence-based support for creating an objective and consistent, real-time framework for assessing and differentiating tornadoes across the tornado intensity spectrum.
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