Increasingly frequent “megafires” in North America's dry forests have prompted proposals to restore historical fire regimes and ecosystem resilience. Restoration efforts that reduce tree densities (eg via logging) could have collateral impacts on declining old‐forest species, but whether these risks outweigh the potential effects of large, severe fires remains uncertain. We demonstrate the effects of a 2014 California megafire on an iconic old‐forest species, the spotted owl (Strix occidentalis). The probability of owl site extirpation was seven times higher after the fire (0.88) than before the fire (0.12) at severely burned sites, contributing to the greatest annual population decline observed during our 23‐year study. The fire also rendered large areas of forest unsuitable for owl foraging one year post‐fire. Our study suggests that megafires pose a threat to old‐forest species, and we conclude that restoring historical fire regimes could benefit both old‐forest species and the dry forest ecosystems they inhabit in this era of climate change.

Management of many North American forests is challenged by the need to balance the potentially competing objectives of reducing risks posed by high‐severity wildfires and protecting threatened species. In the Sierra Nevada, California, concern about high‐severity fires has increased in recent decades but uncertainty exists over the effects of fuel‐reduction treatments on species associated with older forests, such as the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). Here, we assessed the effects of forest conditions, fuel reductions, and wildfire on a declining population of Spotted Owls in the central Sierra Nevada using 20 years of demographic data collected at 74 Spotted Owl territories. Adult survival and territory colonization probabilities were relatively high, while territory extinction probability was relatively low, especially in territories that had relatively large amounts of high canopy cover (≥70%) forest. Reproduction was negatively associated with the area of medium‐intensity timber harvests characteristic of proposed fuel treatments. Our results also suggested that the amount of edge between older forests and shrub/sapling vegetation and increased habitat heterogeneity may positively influence demographic rates of Spotted Owls. Finally, high‐severity fire negatively influenced the probability of territory colonization. Despite correlations between owl demographic rates and several habitat variables, life stage simulation (sensitivity) analyses indicated that the amount of forest with high canopy cover was the primary driver of population growth and equilibrium occupancy at the scale of individual territories. Greater than 90% of medium‐intensity harvests converted high‐canopy‐cover forests into lower‐canopy‐cover vegetation classes, suggesting that landscape‐scale fuel treatments in such stands could have short‐term negative impacts on populations of California Spotted Owls. Moreover, high‐canopy‐cover forests declined by an average of 7.4% across territories during our study, suggesting that habitat loss could have contributed to declines in abundance and territory occupancy. We recommend that managers consider the existing amount and spatial distribution of high‐canopy forest before implementing fuel treatments within an owl territory, and that treatments be accompanied by a rigorous monitoring program.

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Land and resource managers often use detection-nondetection surveys to monitor the populations of species that may be affected by factors such as habitat alteration, climate change, and biological invasions. Relative to mark-recapture studies, using detection-nondetection surveys is more cost-effective, and recent advances in statistical analyses allow the incorporation of detection probability, covariates, and multiple seasons. We examined the efficacy of using detection-nondetection data (relative to mark-recapture data) for monitoring population trends of a territorial species, the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). We estimated and compared the finite annual rates of population change (λt ) and the resulting realized population change (Δt ) from both occupancy and mark-recapture data collected over 18 years (1993-2010). We used multiseason, robust-design occupancy models to estimate that territory occupancy declined during our study (Δt = 0.702, 95% CI 0.552-0.852) due to increasing territory extinction rates (ε(1993) = 0.019 [SE 0.012]; ε(2009) = 0.134 [SE 0.043]) and decreasing colonization rates (γ(1993) = 0.323 [SE 0.124]; γ(2009) = 0.242 [SE 0.058]). We used Pradel's temporal-symmetry model for mark-recapture data to estimate that the population trajectory closely matched the trends in territory occupancy (Δt = 0.725, 95% CI 0.445-1.004). Individual survival was constant during our study (φ(1993) = 0.816 [SE 0.020]; φ(2009) = 0.815 [SE 0.019]), whereas recruitment declined slightly (f(1993) = 0.195 [SE 0.032]; f(2009) = 0.160 [SE 0.023]). Thus, we concluded that detection-nondetection data can provide reliable inferences on population trends, especially when funds preclude more intensive mark-recapture studies.