In diesem Artikel werden Versagenshäufigkeiten von Brücken mit den Zielversagenswahrscheinlichkeiten moderner Normen verglichen. Die Bestimmung der Versagenshäufigkeiten basiert im Sinne einer Metaanalyse auf verschiedenen Veröffentlichungen, die sowohl verschiedene Bezugszeiten als auch verschiedene Regionen umfassen. Außerdem werden die Zielversagenswahrscheinlichkeiten für neue und bestehende Bauwerke kurz diskutiert. Der Vergleich der Werte zeigt eine relativ gute Übereinstimmung.

The uncertainty of the estimation of natural life loads This paper discusses a problem, which arose during some projects in the last years regarding the definition of characteristic and design loads for structures. As a result of several projects, which used sophisticated methods, we have to face the fact, that the uncertainty of the definition of the natural loadings is not decreasing, but increasing. This fact is heavily related to the extension of data series using historical data with their limited quality. Even further, the time validity of the estimated loadings suffers a shorter lifetime, since new results from research projects dealing with historical data coming up in an increasing frequency and may yield to significant changes of the loading values. This questions the design lifetime of structures in the region of 100 years and even further, the applicability of probabilistic as a method for the evaluation of the structural safety, if this method does not sustainably consider the permanently changing epistemic uncertainty.

Structures can be exposed to seismic loading. For structures of major importance, extreme seismic loadings have to be considered. The proof of safety for such loadings requires sophisticated analysis. This paper introduces an analysis method which of course still includes simplifications, but yields to a far more realistic estimation of the seismic load bearing capacity of reinforced concrete structures compared to common methods. It is based on the development of pushover curves and the application of time-histories for the dynamic model to a representative harmonic oscillator. Dynamic parameters of the oscillator, such as modal mass and damping are computed using a soil-structure-interaction analysis. Based on the pushover-curve nonlinear force-deformation-capacities are applied to the oscillator including hysteresis behaviour characteristics. The oscillator is then exposed to time-histories of several earthquakes. Based on this computation the ductility is computed. The ductility can be scaled based upon the scaling of the time-histories. Since both, the uncertainty of the earthquake by using different time-histories and the uncertainty of the structure by using characteristic and mean material values, are considered, the uncertainty of the structure under seismic loading can be explicitly represented by a fragility.

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