Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

Malaria importation and local vector susceptibility to imported Plasmodium vivax infection are a continuing risk along the China–Myanmar border. Malaria transmission has been prevented in 3 border villages in Tengchong County, Yunnan Province, China, by use of active fever surveillance, integrated vector control measures, and intensified surveillance and response.

The Asia–Pacific region faces formidable challenges in achieving malaria elimination by the proposed target in 2030. Molecular surveillance of Plasmodium parasites can provide important information on malaria transmission and adaptation, which can inform national malaria control programmes (NMCPs) in decision-making processes. In November 2019 a parasite genotyping workshop was held in Jakarta, Indonesia, to review molecular approaches for parasite surveillance and explore ways in which these tools can be integrated into public health systems and inform policy. The meeting was attended by 70 participants from 8 malaria-endemic countries and partners of the Asia Pacific Malaria Elimination Network. The participants acknowledged the utility of multiple use cases for parasite genotyping including: quantifying the prevalence of drug resistant parasites, predicting risks of treatment failure, identifying major routes and reservoirs of infection, monitoring imported malaria and its contribution to local transmission, characterizing the origins and dynamics of malaria outbreaks, and estimating the frequency of Plasmodium vivax relapses. However, the priority of each use case varies with different endemic settings. Although a one-size-fits-all approach to molecular surveillance is unlikely to be applicable across the Asia–Pacific region, consensus on the spectrum of added-value activities will help support data sharing across national boundaries. Knowledge exchange is needed to establish local expertise in different laboratory-based methodologies and bioinformatics processes. Collaborative research involving local and international teams will help maximize the impact of analytical outputs on the operational needs of NMCPs. Research is also needed to explore the cost-effectiveness of genetic epidemiology for different use cases to help to leverage funding for wide-scale implementation. Engagement between NMCPs and local researchers will be critical throughout this process.

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