Background Assessing the burden of COVID-19 on the basis of medically attended case numbers is suboptimal given its reliance on testing strategy, changing case definitions, and disease presentation. Population-based serosurveys measuring anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (anti-SARS-CoV-2) antibodies provide one method for estimating infection rates and monitoring the progression of the epidemic. Here, we estimate weekly seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the population of Geneva, Switzerland, during the epidemic.Methods The SEROCoV-POP study is a population-based study of former participants of the Bus Santé study and their household members. We planned a series of 12 consecutive weekly serosurveys among randomly selected participants from a previous population-representative survey, and their household members aged 5 years and older. We tested each participant for anti-SARS-CoV-2-IgG antibodies using a commercially available ELISA. We estimated seroprevalence using a Bayesian logistic regression model taking into account test performance and adjusting for the age and sex of Geneva's population. Here we present results from the first 5 weeks of the study. FindingsBetween April 6 and May 9, 2020, we enrolled 2766 participants from 1339 households, with a demographic distribution similar to that of the canton of Geneva. In the first week, we estimated a seroprevalence of 4•8% (95% CI 2•4-8•0, n=341). The estimate increased to 8•5% (5•9-11•4, n=469) in the second week, to 10•9% (7•9-14•4, n=577) in the third week, 6•6% (4•3-9•4, n=604) in the fourth week, and 10•8% (8•2-13•9, n=775) in the fifth week. Individuals aged 5-9 years (relative risk [RR] 0•32 [95% CI 0•11-0•63]) and those older than 65 years (RR 0•50 [0•28-0•78]) had a significantly lower risk of being seropositive than those aged 20-49 years. After accounting for the time to seroconversion, we estimated that for every reported confirmed case, there were 11•6 infections in the community.Interpretation These results suggest that most of the population of Geneva remained uninfected during this wave of the pandemic, despite the high prevalence of COVID-19 in the region (5000 reported clinical cases over <2•5 months in the population of half a million people). Assuming that the presence of IgG antibodies is associated with immunity, these results highlight that the epidemic is far from coming to an end by means of fewer susceptible people in the population. Further, a significantly lower seroprevalence was observed for children aged 5-9 years and adults older than 65 years, compared with those aged 10-64 years. These results will inform countries considering the easing of restrictions aimed at curbing transmission.
Unhealthy behaviors and their social patterning have been frequently proposed as factors mediating socioeconomic differences in health. However, a clear quantification of the contribution of health behaviors to the socioeconomic gradient in health is lacking. This study systematically reviews the role of health behaviors in explaining socioeconomic inequalities in health. Published studies were identified by a systematic review of PubMed, Embase and Web-of-Science. Four health behaviors were considered: smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and diet. We restricted health outcomes to cardiometabolic disorders and mortality. To allow comparison between studies, the contribution of health behaviors, or the part of the socioeconomic gradient in health that is explained by health behaviors, was recalculated in all studies according to the absolute scale difference method. We identified 114 articles on socioeconomic position, health behaviors and cardiometabolic disorders or mortality from electronic databases and articles reference lists. Lower socioeconomic position was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality and cardiometabolic disorders, this gradient was explained by health behaviors to varying degrees (minimum contribution -43%; maximum contribution 261%). Health behaviors explained a larger proportion of the SEP-health gradient in studies conducted in North America and Northern Europe, in studies examining all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, among men, in younger individuals, and in longitudinal studies, when compared to other settings. Of the four behaviors examined, smoking contributed the most to social inequalities in health, with a median contribution of 19%. Health behaviors contribute to the socioeconomic gradient in cardiometabolic disease and mortality, but this contribution varies according to population and study characteristics. Nevertheless, our results should encourage the implementation of interventions targeting health behaviors, as they may reduce socioeconomic inequalities in health and increase population health.
41Background: Assessing the burden of COVID-19 based on medically-attended case counts is 42 suboptimal given its reliance on testing strategy, changing case definitions and the wide spectrum of 43 disease presentation. Population-based serosurveys provide one avenue for estimating infection rates 44 and monitoring the progression of the epidemic, overcoming many of these limitations. 45 46 Methods: Taking advantage of a pool of adult participants from population-representative surveys 47
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