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Studying locations of strong earthquakes (М≥8) in space and time in Central Asia has been among top problems for many years and still remains challenging for international research teams. The authors propose a new approach that requires changing the paradigm of earthquake focus-solid rock relations, while this paradigm is a basis for practically all known physical models of earthquake foci. This paper describes the first step towards developing a new concept of the seismic process, including generation of strong earthquakes, with reference to specific geodynamic features of the part of the study region wherein strong earthquakes were recorded in the past two centuries. Our analysis of the locations of М≥8 earthquakes shows that in the past two centuries such earthquakes took place in areas of the dynamic influence of large deep faults in the western regions of Central Asia. In the continental Asia, there is a clear submeridional structural boundary (95-105°E) between the western and eastern regions, and this is a factor controlling localization of strong seismic events in the western regions. Obviously, the Indostan plate's pressure from the south is an energy source for such events. The strong earthquakes are located in a relatively small part of the territory of Central Asia (i.e. the western regions), which is significantly different from its neighbouring areas at the north, east and west, as evidenced by its specific geodynamic parameters. (1) The crust is twice as thick in the western regions than in the eastern regions. (2) In the western regions, the block structures resulting from the crust destruction, which are mainly represented by lense-shaped forms elongated in the submeridional direction, tend to dominate. (3) Active faults bordering large block structures are characterized by significant slip velocities that reach maximum values in the central part of the Tibetan plateau. Further northward, slip velocities decrease gradually, yet do not disappear. (4) In the western regions of Central Asia, the recurrence time of strong earthquakes is about 25 years. It correlates with the regular activation of the seismic process in Asia which is manifested in almost the same time intervals; a recurrence time of a strong earthquake controlled by a specific active fault exceeds seems 100-250 years. (5) Mechanisms of all the strong earthquakes contain a slip component that is often accompanied by a compression component. The slip component corresponds to shearing along the faults revealed by geological methods, i.e. correlates with rock mass displacements in the near-fault medium. (6) GPS geodetic measurements show that shearing develops in the NW direction in the Tibet. Further northward, the direction changes to the sublatitudinal one. At the boundary of ~105°E, southward of 30°N, the slip vectors attain the SE direction. Further southward of 20°N, at the eastern edge of the Himalayan thrust, the slip vectors again attain the sublatitudinal direction. High velocities/rates of recent crust movements are typical of ...

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The first tectonophysical model of the Baikal seismic zone represents a separate complex region of the lithosphere. It has a pinnate structure with a backbone belt of current deformation, which is a concentrator of largest earthquakes, and branching, repeatedly reactivated large and small faults. In its vertical section, the seismic zone is tree-like, the stem and the branches being faults of different size ranks which can generate earthquakes when reactivated. The real-time short-period fault motions and the respective seismicity occurring at a certain time and in certain places are triggered by strain waves, which disturb the metastable state of the faulted lithosphere subject to regional stress. The modeling work includes developing general requirements for tectonophysical models of continental rifts and special methods for identifying the faults that become active within short historic time spans, as well as techniques for locating potential events in space and time in specific active faults. The methods and model testing for medium-term earthquake prediction are described by the example of the well-documented Baikal seismic zone, which is the most active part of the Baikal rift system. The tectonophysical model for the Baikal zone is statistically supported by field data, and this allows estimating the velocities and periods of strain waves for different zone segments and faults, with implications for nearest-future earthquake prediction.