A factor of 2.5 increase in the global abundance of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) since 1750 contributes 0.5 Wm −2 to total direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (2.77 Wm −2 in 2009), while its role in atmospheric chemistry adds another approximately 0.2 Wm −2 of indirect forcing. Since CH 4 has a relatively short lifetime and it is very close to a steady state, reductions in its emissions would quickly benefit climate. Sensible emission mitigation strategies require quantitative understanding of CH 4 ’s budget of emissions and sinks. Atmospheric observations of CH 4 abundance and its rate of increase, combined with an estimate of the CH 4 lifetime, constrain total global CH 4 emissions to between 500 and 600 Tg CH 4  yr −1 . While total global emissions are constrained reasonably well, estimates of emissions by source sector vary by up to a factor of 2. Current observation networks are suitable to constrain emissions at large scales (e.g. global) but not at the regional to national scales necessary to verify emission reductions under emissions trading schemes. Improved constraints on the global CH 4 budget and its break down of emissions by source sector and country will come from an enhanced observation network for CH 4 abundance and its isotopic composition ( δ 13 C, δ D (D= 2 H) and δ 14 C). Isotopic measurements are a valuable tool in distinguishing among various sources that contribute emissions to an air parcel, once fractionation by loss processes is accounted for. Isotopic measurements are especially useful at regional scales where signals are larger. Reducing emissions from many anthropogenic source sectors is cost-effective, but these gains may be cancelled, in part, by increasing emissions related to economic development in many parts of the world. An observation network that can quantitatively assess these changing emissions, both positive and negative, is required, especially in the context of emissions trading schemes.

Earth is over 4,500 million years old. Massive bombardment of the planet took place for the first 500-700 million years, and the largest impacts would have been capable of sterilizing the planet. Probably until 4,000 million years ago or later, occasional impacts might have heated the ocean over 100 degrees C. Life on Earth dates from before about 3,800 million years ago, and is likely to have gone through one or more hot-ocean 'bottlenecks'. Only hyperthermophiles (organisms optimally living in water at 80-110 degrees C) would have survived. It is possible that early life diversified near hydrothermal vents, but hypotheses that life first occupied other pre-bottleneck habitats are tenable (including transfer from Mars on ejecta from impacts there). Early hyperthermophile life, probably near hydrothermal systems, may have been non-photosynthetic, and many housekeeping proteins and biochemical processes may have an original hydrothermal heritage. The development of anoxygenic and then oxygenic photosynthesis would have allowed life to escape the hydrothermal setting. By about 3,500 million years ago, most of the principal biochemical pathways that sustain the modern biosphere had evolved, and were global in scope.

[1] More than 250 plumes of gas bubbles have been discovered emanating from the seabed of the West Spitsbergen continental margin, in a depth range of 150 -400 m, at and above the present upper limit of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ). Some of the plumes extend upward to within 50 m of the sea surface. The gas is predominantly methane. Warming of the northward-flowing West Spitsbergen current by 1°C over the last thirty years is likely to have increased the release of methane from the seabed by reducing the extent of the GHSZ, causing the liberation of methane from decomposing hydrate. If this process becomes widespread along Arctic continental margins, tens of Teragrams of methane per year could be released into the ocean. Citation: Westbrook, G. K., et al.(2009), Escape of methane gas from the seabed along the West Spitsbergen continental margin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15608,

From 2007 to 2013, the globally averaged mole fraction of methane in the atmosphere increased by 5.7 ± 1.2 ppb yr À1. Simultaneously, δ 13 C CH4 (a measure of the 13 C/ 12 C isotope ratio in methane) has shifted to significantly more negative values since 2007. Growth was extreme in 2014, at 12.5 ± 0.4 ppb, with a further shift to more negative values being observed at most latitudes. The isotopic evidence presented here suggests that the methane rise was dominated by significant increases in biogenic methane emissions, particularly in the tropics, for example, from expansion of tropical wetlands in years with strongly positive rainfall anomalies or emissions from increased agricultural sources such as ruminants and rice paddies. Changes in the removal rate of methane by the OH radical have not been seen in other tracers of atmospheric chemistry and do not appear to explain short-term variations in methane. Fossil fuel emissions may also have grown, but the sustained shift to more 13 C-depleted values and its significant interannual variability, and the tropical and Southern Hemisphere loci of post-2007 growth, both indicate that fossil fuel emissions have not been the dominant factor driving the increase. A major cause of increased tropical wetland and tropical agricultural methane emissions, the likely major contributors to growth, may be their responses to meteorological change.

Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 ± 0.7 ppb/year), 2016 (7.0 ± 0.7 ppb/year), and 2017 (7.7 ± 0.7 ppb/year), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1,775 ppb in 2006 to 1,850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13C/12C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ13CCH4) has shifted, now trending negative for more than a decade. The causes of methane's recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and subtropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive. The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/year in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden. However, anthropogenic methane emissions are relatively very large and thus offer attractive targets for rapid reduction, which are essential if the Paris Agreement aims are to be attained.