Cloud radiative feedbacks are disabled via “cloud-locking” in the Community Earth System Model, version 1.2 (CESM1.2), to result in a shift in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) periodicity from 2–7 years to decadal time scales. We hypothesize that cloud radiative feedbacks may impact the periodicity in three ways: by 1) modulating heat flux locally into the equatorial Pacific subsurface through negative shortwave cloud feedback on sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA), 2) damping the persistence of subtropical southeast Pacific SSTA such that the South Pacific meridional mode impacts the duration of ENSO events, or 3) controlling the meridional width of off-equatorial westerly winds, which impacts the periodicity of ENSO by initiating longer Rossby waves. The result of cloud-locking in CESM1.2 contrasts that of another study, which found that cloud-locking in a different global climate model led to decreased ENSO magnitude across all time scales due to a lack of positive longwave feedback on the anomalous Walker circulation. CESM1.2 contains this positive longwave feedback on the anomalous Walker circulation, but either its influence on the surface is decoupled from ocean dynamics or the feedback is only active on interannual time scales. The roles of cloud radiative feedbacks in ENSO in other global climate models are additionally considered. In particular, it is shown that one cannot predict the role of cloud radiative feedbacks in ENSO through a multimodel diagnostic analysis. Instead, they must be directly altered.
Understanding the influence of clouds on amplified Arctic surface warming remains an important unsolved research problem. Here, this cloud influence is directly quantified by disabling cloud radiative feedbacks or “cloud locking” within a state‐of‐the‐art and well‐documented model. Through comparison of idealized greenhouse warming experiments with and without cloud locking, the influence of Arctic and global cloud feedbacks is assessed. Global cloud feedbacks increase both global and Arctic warming by around 25%. In contrast, disabling Arctic cloud feedbacks has a negligible influence on both Arctic and global surface warming. Interestingly, the sum of noncloud radiative feedbacks does not change with either global or Arctic‐only cloud locking. Notably, the influence of Arctic cloud feedbacks is likely underestimated, because, like many models, the model used here underestimates high‐latitude supercooled cloud liquid. More broadly, this work demonstrates the value of regional and global cloud locking in a well‐characterized model.
The processes controlling idealized warming and cooling patterns are examined in 150 year-long fully coupled Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) experiments under abrupt CO2 forcing. By simulation end, 2xCO2 global warming was 20% larger than 0.5xCO2 global cooling. Not only was the absolute global effective radiative forcing ∼10% larger for 2xCO2 than for 0.5xCO2, global feedbacks were also less negative for 2xCO2 than for 0.5xCO2. Specifically, more positive shortwave cloud feedbacks led to more 2xCO2 global warming than 0.5xCO2 global cooling. Over high latitude oceans, differences between 2xCO2 warming and 0.5xCO2 cooling were amplified by familiar linked positive surface albedo and lapse rate feedbacks associated with sea ice change. At low latitudes, 2xCO2 warming exceeded 0.5xCO2 cooling almost everywhere. Tropical Pacific cloud feedbacks amplified: 1) more fast warming than fast cooling in the west, 2) slow pattern differences between 2xCO2 warming and 0.5xCO2 cooling in the east. Motivated to quantify cloud influence, a companion suite of experiments were run without cloud radiative feedbacks. Disabling cloud radiative feedbacks reduced the effective radiative forcing and surface temperature responses for both 2xCO2 and 0.5xCO2. Notably, 20% more global warming than global cooling occurred regardless of whether cloud feedbacks were enabled or disabled. This surprising consistency resulted from the cloud influence on non-cloud feedbacks and circulation. With the exception of the Tropical Pacific, disabling cloud feedbacks did little to change surface temperature response patterns including the large high-latitude responses driven by non-cloud feedbacks. The findings provide new insights into the regional processes controlling the response to greenhouse gas forcing, especially for clouds.
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