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Small spacecraft, first of all, nanosatellites of a CubeSat standard have a relatively small operational life. After their operational lives have expired, they turn into space debris. Disabled spacecraft can be transferred to the disposal orbit in the dense atmosphere using inflatable decelerators in order to avoid pollution of the near-Earth space. Decelerator’s temperature state is formed under the action of thermal radiation from the Sun and the Earth and kinetic heating caused by movement in a free-molecular medium. The specific features of heat transfer of inflatable decelerator’s thin-walled spherical shell are considered. The inflatable decelerator is designed for spacecraft removal during moving in the low-earth orbit.

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The paper considers the algorithm of diagnostics of the technical system States at future time points by extrapolation of the results of current observations using a genetic algorithm. The novelty of this work lies in the fact that the proposed algorithm is able to generate predictions of technical system States using predictive algorithms and mathematical rules. The paper offers an original view on the use of genetic algorithm as an independent predictive algorithm. The described algorithm is a combination of a modified genetic algorithm and a number of mathematical rules. So, as a modification of the genetic algorithm, its parallel variant (island model) is used, and as a fitness function, a function is used that tests new alternative solutions for distance from the geometric representation of the averaged values of the time series graph. The algorithm performs prediction for a given number of time intervals ahead, for processes that are affected by a limited number of external factors. The efficiency of the algorithm was confirmed by an experiment, which resulted in a predictive solution, the General direction of the process (which was tested in practice).