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The paper is concerned with a methodological approach to monitoring the state of atmospheric parameters in the catchment area of Lake Baikal, including real-time analysis of actual distributed data with the determination of analog years according to the preset proximity of comparative indicators and the most probable long-term predictive distributions of surface temperatures, precipitation, pressure, and geopotential with a lead time of up to 9–12 months. We have developed the information-analytical system GeoGIPSAR to conduct the real-time analysis of spatial and point data by various processing methods and obtain long-term prognostic estimates of water inflow into the lake.

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Energy and water management systems are closely interrelated through the operating regimes of Hydro Power Plants (HPP) or HPP cascades. This is first of all, characteristic of energy systems with a large share of HPP. One of such systems is the energy system of Siberia, which includes the Angara-Yenisei cascade of HPP, the largest in Russia and one of the largest in the world. The studies were carried out on the example of this energy system and the water management system of the Angara and Yenisei basins. A specific feature of the energy and water management systems of Siberia is a significant impact of stochastic factors on their operation. These factors include natural (water inflow in the reservoirs in the spring-summer period and outdoor temperature in the autumn-winter period), and also economic (demand for electric and thermal energy, electricity and heat prices) factors. The paper presents mathematical models for the joint study of energy and water systems. These models factor in the specifics of the systems during planning for a period of up to 1 year. Modeling of the interconnected operation of energy and water systems makes it possible to solve important problems. These are the improvement in the reliability and stability of the considered systems, increase in their economic efficiency (minimization of electricity prices for consumers), assessment and minimization of various risks, prevention from or reduction in possible damages, rational planning of repairs, the formation of fuel reserves at thermal power plants, and others.

The paper focuses on the reservoir regulation issues of the Angara cascade of hydroelectric power plants (HPPs). The current requirements of water users and the restrictions on the operating conditions of individual hydrosystems are analyzed. The inconsistency of the current legislation on water resources management in the Baikal and Angara basins is noted. Satisfying the requirements of water users and water consumers under normal and close-to-normal water availability, the management system cannot meet the standard needs and restrictions during the low and high water periods. One of the main reasons for the decrease in the reliability and stability of the water and energy systems in dry and wet years is a significant decrease in the regulation capabilities of the Irkutsk and Bratsk reservoirs versus design indices. The study involves an analysis of the operation of the Angara cascade of HPPs and the efficiency and reliability of the water management system of the Angara basin over the past 30 years. The optimal operating conditions of the cascade were modeled factoring in the current requirements of water users and socio-economic constraints for various hydrological conditions based on a 120-year statistical series of observations. Measures are proposed to enhance the effectiveness of managing the water resources of the Angara cascade reservoirs. The system of models developed by the authors was used to assess the effectiveness of the proposed measures. The assessments of the stability of the Angara water management system and the possibilities of increasing the probability of meeting the water users requirements are presented. We propose amending the current legislation to significantly boost the energy efficiency of the Angara cascade of hydropower plants, without violating the regulatory compliance of non-energy participants in the water management system of the Angara basin.