Paratuberculosis, a chronic enteropathy of ruminants, is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis and is transmitted mainly in faeces to young animals by infected adults, some of which may not have clinical signs. The incubation period is inversely related to the size of the challenge dose but can be extremely prolonged. Clinical cases may not be seen within the economic lifespan of farm animals, particularly when stocking rates are low, pasture is spelled, or when animals are culled at a relatively young age. Other as yet unknown influences may determine the rate of progression or recovery from infection. Paratuberculosis appears in a range of forms from a disease with high prevalence and significant mortality through to one with very low prevalence and little obvious morbidity or mortality. Detection of infected flocks and herds relies on use of laboratory tests. Bacteriological culture of faeces is the most sensitive herd-level test. The passage of time and repeated testing are the greatest allies in detecting paratuberculosis because infected animals progress in the disease process and most tests are more effective in the later stages of the disease. These factors generally cause the prevalence of paratuberculosis to be underestimated at both herd or flock and regional level. Greater understanding of the epidemiology and pathogenesis of M a paratuberculosis infection is critical in order to design improved diagnostic strategies, assess the feasibility of eradication and develop control options, particularly in small ruminants.

No abstract

Surveying and declaring disease freedom in wildlife is difficult because information on population size and spatial distribution is often inadequate. We describe and demonstrate a novel spatial model of wildlife disease-surveillance data for predicting the probability of freedom of bovine tuberculosis (caused by Mycobacterium bovis) in New Zealand, in which the introduced brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) is the primary wildlife reservoir. Using parameters governing home-range size, probability of capture, probability of infection and spatial relative risks of infection we employed survey data on reservoir hosts and spillover sentinels to make inference on the probability of eradication. Our analysis revealed high sensitivity of model predictions to parameter values, which demonstrated important differences in the information contained in survey data of host-reservoir and spillover-sentinel species. The modelling can increase cost efficiency by reducing the likelihood of prematurely declaring success due to insufficient control, and avoiding unnecessary costs due to excessive control and monitoring.

The concept of an epidemiological approach to disease investigation is discussed. This involves the application of a logical, structured and transparent approach to any epidemiological investigation or project. It applies equally well to all types of epidemiological studies but is particularly important when investigating outbreaks of disease where the cause is unknown.