No abstract

Advances in financial engineering are radically reshaping the biomedical marketplace. For instance, new methods of pooling diversified drug development programs by placing them in a special purpose vehicle (SPV) have been proposed to create a securitized cancer megafund allowing for debt and equity participation. In this study, we perform theoretical and numerical simulations that highlight the role of empirical validation of the projects comprising a cancer megafund. We quantify the degree to which the deliberately designed structure of derivatives and investments is key to its liquidity. Research megafunds with comprehensive in silico and laboratory validation protocols and ability to issue both debt, and equity as well as hybrid financial products may enable conservative investors including pension funds and sovereign government funds to profit from unique securitization opportunities. Thus, while hedging investor's longevity risk, such well-validated megafunds will contribute to health, wellbeing and longevity of the global population.

Social Security and Medicare programs are contributing to the rapidly increasing public debt and continuous budget defi cits. The extent of the fi scal imbalance attributed to these programs may substantially exceed the forecasts of the Social Security Administration (SSA) and the most aggressive projections of other organizations. The many advances in biomedical sciences may signifi cantly extend the longevity of the aging population that will by far outpace the planned increases in the retirement age. In this article, we evaluate three hypothetical scenarios where all other factors affecting the demographic distribution remain unchanged, but the mortality rates are decreased taking into consideration the progress in science and technology. Our estimates reveal that if deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases and cancer are eliminated, the fi scal imbalance may be as high as USD 87 trillion in present value. Given the current pace of biological innovations, the likelihood of elimination of those diseases is not improbable, and if that happens the welfare programs may

As more and more people believe that significant life extensions may come soon, should commonly used future mortality assumptions be considered prudent? We find here that commonly used actuarial tables for annuitants -as well as the Lee-Carter model -do not extrapolate life expectancy at the same rate for future years as for past years; instead they produce some longevity deceleration. This is typically because their mortality improvements decrease after a certain age, and those age-specific improvements are constant over time. As potential alternatives i) we study the Bongaarts model that produces straight increases in life expectancy; ii) we adapt it to produce best-practice longevity trends iii) we compare with various longevity scenarios even including a model for "life extension velocity". iv) after gathering advances in biogerontology we discuss elements to help retirement systems cope with a potential strong increase in life expectancy.

In France, access to a loan requires one to obtain loan insurance and the presence of a pathology in the applicant may be a reason for refusal. Improving knowledge of health risks and pooling risks are two methods of broadening access to loans. We attempt to analyse these possibilities using open data and risk pooling scenarios. We find that the removal of medical selection can be ensured if the current framework is adjusted. We also demonstrate how to use open data to estimate loan insurance premiums for a variety of diseases. We take two examples: breast cancer and type 1 diabetes. Broadening access to borrowing would be beneficial for patients and for the development of the economy associated with these projects.