Hunting and habitat loss represent an increasingly common anthropogenic impact. Available evidence suggests that defaunation is typically differential: medium/large mammals are most affected while small rodents are less affected, or even favored. In heavily impacted areas, such as Los Tuxtlas, the residual mammalian fauna is dominated by small rodents. We tested the expectation that if small rodents will preferentially attack small‐seeded species, large‐seeded species may escape predation in the absence of medium/large seed predators and that this may affect germination and, possibly, recruitment. Experiments with caged rodents (Heteromys desmarestianus) under laboratory conditions showed a preference for smaller seeds. A field experiment involving seeds of contrasting size showed that small, unprotected seeds experienced a predation risk 30‐times larger than protected seeds, while the effect of protection was not significant for large seeds. These patterns of predation led to significant differences in germination: protected small‐seeded species had a fourfold greater germination than unprotected small‐seeded species, while germination was not significantly different between exposed and protected large seeds. The observed contrasts in germination suggest that under heavy defaunation, small‐seeded species are likely to be penalized by the overabundance of small rodents, while large‐seeded species escape predation. Our results are consistent with the observation of dense seedling carpets dominated by large‐seeded species in the understory of Los Tuxtlas. We speculate that the patterns we uncovered may explain, at least partly, the impoverished diversity of the understory vegetation that characterizes heavily defaunated understories and that this has the potential to affect forest regeneration.

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Aim:We test a new species distribution modelling (SDM) framework, while comparing results to more common distribution modelling techniques. This framework allows for the combination of presence-only (PO) and presence-absence (PA) data and accounts for imperfect detection and spatial bias in presence data. The new framework tested here is based on a Poisson point process model, which allows for predictions of population size. We compared these estimates to those provided by experts on the species. Species and Location: Presence data on Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) throughout its range from southern México to northern Colombia were used in this research, primarily from the years 2000 to 2016. Methods: Four SDM frameworks are compared as follows: (1) Maxent, (2) a presenceonly (PO) SDM based on a Poisson point process model (PPM), (3) a presence-absence (PA) SDM also based on a PPM and (4) an Integrated framework which combines the previous two models. Model averaging was used to produce a single set of coefficient estimates and predictive maps for each model framework. A hotspot analysis (Gi*) was used to identify habitat cores from the predicted intensity of the Integrated model framework. Results: Important variables to model the distribution of Baird's tapir included land cover, human pressure and topography. Accounting for spatial bias in the presence data affected which variables were important in the model. Maxent and the Integrated model produced predictive maps with similar patterns and were considered to be more in agreement with expert knowledge compared to the PO and PA models.Main conclusions: Total abundance as predicted by the model was higher than expert opinion on the species, but local density estimates from our model were similar to available independent assessments. We suggest that these results warrant further validation and testing through collection of independent test data, development of more precise predictor layers and improvements to the model framework.

It has been suggested that tropical defaunation may unleash communitywide cascading effects, leading to reductions in plant diversity. However, experimental evidence establishing cause-effect relationships thereof is poor. Through a 5 year exclosure experiment, we tested the hypothesis that mammalian defaunation affects tree seedling/sapling community dynamics leading to reductions in understorey plant diversity. We established plot triplets (n ¼ 25) representing three defaunation contexts: terrestrial-mammal exclosure (TE), medium/large mammal exclosure (PE) and open access controls (C). Seedlings/saplings 30-100 cm tall were marked and identified within each of these plots and re-censused three times to record survival and recruitment. In the periods 2010-2011 and 2011-2013, survival was greater in PE than in C plots and recruitment was higher in TE plots than in C plots. Overall, seedling density increased by 61% in TE plots and 23% in PE plots, whereas it decreased by 5% in C plots. Common species highly consumed by mammals (e.g. Brosimum alicastrum and Ampelocera hottlei) increased in their abundance in TE plots. Rarefaction curves showed that species diversity decreased in TE plots from 2008 to 2013, whereas it remained similar for C plots. Given the prevalence of tropical defaunation, we posit this is an anthropogenic effect threatening the maintenance of tropical forest diversity.