The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

We compared the species diversity of copronecrophagous beetles (Scarabaeinae), bats, and frogs in tropical montane cloud forest (original vegetation) and shaded coffee plantations (an agroecosystem common to the region) for a landscape in central Veracruz, Mexico. We sampled in three tropical montane cloud forest fragments and in three coffee plantations with traditional polyculture shade between 1998 and 2001. The three indicator groups responded differently to the transformation of tropical montane cloud forest into shaded coffee plantations. The species richness of frogs was one-fifth less in coffee plantations than in forest fragments, and only one-third of the frog species occurred in both forest fragments and coffee plantations. The number of beetle species and their abundance was significantly greater in coffee plantations than in the forest fragments, whereas species richness and species composition of bats were virtually the same in both habitats. The majority of the abundant species remained as such in both communities, but species that were less abundant were not scarce in both habitats. We attributed differences in the species assemblages to the differing degrees of penetrability of the borders of the two habitat types (especially for the coffee plantations) and to the differences in life-history traits among species. Shaded coffee plantations form a matrix that envelops the remaining fragments of cloud forest. Together they connect the forest fragments with the other habitats of the landscape and represent a highly functional resource for the preservation of biodiversity that serves as a complement to but not a substitute for cloud forest in this notably modified landscape. Key Words: indicator groups, Mexico, shaded coffee plantations, tropical montane cloud forest Diversidad de Ranas, Murciélagos y Escarabajos del Estiércol en el Bosque de Niebla y Agrosistemas de Café en Veracruz, México Resumen: Comparamos la diversidad de especies de escarabajos copronecrófagos (Scarabaeinae), murciélagos y ranas en bosque tropical montano nublado (vegetación original) y en plantaciones de café de sombra (un agrosistema común en la región) en un paisaje en el centro de Veracruz, México. Entre 1998 y 2001 muestreamos en tres fragmentos de bosque tropical montano nublado y en tres plantaciones de café con sombra de policultivo tradicional. Los tres grupos indicadores tuvieron diferente respuesta a la transformación de bosque tropical montano nublado en plantaciones de café de sombra. La riqueza de especies de ranas fue una quinta parte menor en las plantaciones de café que en los fragmentos de bosque, y solo la tercera parte de las especies de ranas ocurrieron tanto en los fragmentos de bosque como en las plantaciones de café. El número de especies de escarabajos y su abundancia fue significativamente mayor en las plantaciones de ‡Current address: 6 Suffolk Walk, Pineda et al. Habitat Transformation and Species Diversity 401 café que en los fragmentos de bosque, mientras que la riqueza y composición de especies de...

Resumen. El índice de entropía de Shannon y otras medidas de complejidad se utilizan frecuentemente para evaluar la diversidad de especies en comunidades ecológicas, aun cuando su comprensión es difícil y sus valores no son comparables. En este trabajo se muestra que los números efectivos de especies (medidas de diversidad verdadera) permiten obtener una interpretación intuitiva y fácilmente comparable de la diversidad de especies. Se ejemplifica su uso reanalizando los datos de 4 trabajos publicados en la Revista Mexicana de Biodiversidad (realizados en distintos ecosistemas y regiones de México, con distinta resolución taxonómica y enfocados en distintos grupos biológicos). Se utilizan modelos de estimación en los que se considera que las muestras son representaciones incompletas de las comunidades. Se explica también la manera en que las medidas de diversidad de distinto orden incorporan a las especies según su abundancia en la comunidad. Los resultados obtenidos pueden resultar de especial interés cuando los valores de diversidad se utilizan para proponer medidas para el manejo de recursos y la conservación biológica. Palabras clave: diversidad verdadera, especies equivalentes, especies igualmente comunes, índice de Shannon, riqueza, equidad, dominancia, abundancia.

We evaluated the importance of small (<5 ha) forest patches for the conservation of regional plant diversity in the tropical rainforest of Los Tuxtlas, Mexico. We analyzed the density of plant species (number of species per 0.1 ha) in 45 forest patches of different sizes (1-700 ha) in 3 landscapes with different deforestation levels (4, 11, and 24% forest cover). Most of the 364 species sampled (360 species, 99%) were native to the region, and only 4 (1%) were human-introduced species. Species density in the smallest patches was high and variable; the highest (84 species) and lowest (23 species) number of species were recorded in patches of up to 1.8 ha. Despite the small size of these patches, they contained diverse communities of native plants, including endangered and economically important species. The relationship between species density and area was significantly different among the landscapes, with a significant positive slope only in the landscape with the highest deforestation level. This indicates that species density in a patch of a given size may vary among landscapes that have different deforestation levels. Therefore, the conservation value of a patch depends on the total forest cover remaining in the landscape. Our findings revealed, however, that a great portion of regional plant diversity was located in very small forest patches (<5 ha), most of the species were restricted to only a few patches (41% of the species sampled were distributed in only 1-2 patches, and almost 70% were distributed in 5 patches) and each landscape conserved a unique plant assemblage. The conservation and restoration of small patches is therefore necessary to effectively preserve the plant diversity of this strongly deforested and unique Neotropical region.

Summary 1.Evaluating the distribution of species richness where biodiversity is high but has been insufficiently sampled is not an easy task. Species distribution modelling has become a useful approach for predicting their ranges, based on the relationships between species records and environmental variables. Overlapping predictions of individual distributions could be a useful strategy for obtaining estimates of species richness and composition in a region, but these estimates should be evaluated using a proper validation process, which compares the predicted richness values and composition with accurate data from independent sources. 2. In this study, we propose a simple approach to estimate model performance for several distributional predictions generated simultaneously. This approach is particularly suitable when species distribution modelling techniques that require only presence data are used. 3. The individual distributions for the 370 known amphibian species of Mexico were predicted using maxent to model data on their known presence (66 113 presence-only records). Distributions were subsequently overlapped to obtain a prediction of species richness. Accuracy was assessed by comparing the overall species richness values predicted for the region with observed and predicted values from 118 well-surveyed sites, each with an area of c. 100 km 2 , which were identified using species accumulation curves and nonparametric estimators. 4. The derived models revealed a remarkable heterogeneity of species richness across the country, provided information about species composition per site and allowed us to obtain a measure of the spatial distribution of prediction errors. Examining the magnitude and location of model inaccuracies, as well as separately assessing errors of both commission and omission, highlights the inaccuracy of the predictions of species distribution models and the need to provide measures of uncertainty along with the model results. 5. The combination of a species distribution modelling method like maxent and species richness estimators offers a useful tool for identifying when the overall pattern provided by all model predictions might be representing the geographical patterns of species richness and composition, regardless of the particular quality or accuracy of the predictions for each individual species.