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Background Susceptibility to tobacco use predicts tobacco use onset among youth. The current study aimed to estimate the extent of overlap in susceptibilities across various tobacco products, investigate sociopsychological correlates with susceptibilities, and examine whether the relationship linking susceptibility with the onset of use is product-specific or is accounted for by a general susceptibility-onset relationship. Methods The study population consisted of US youth 12–17 years old who had never used a tobacco product, sampled in the longitudinal Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study wave 4 (Dec. 2016-Jan. 2018; n = 10,977). Tobacco product-specific susceptibility at wave 4 was assessed via questions about curiosity, likelihood to try, and likelihood of use if a best friend offered. The onset of use of various tobacco products was defined as first use occurring between the wave 4 and wave 4.5 (Dec. 2017-Dec. 2018) assessments (n = 8841). Generalized linear regression and structural equation models were used for data analysis. Results There is a large degree of overlap in susceptibilities across tobacco products (65% of tobacco-susceptible youth were susceptible to more than one tobacco product). Tobacco-susceptible youths were more likely to have recently used cannabis, consumed alcohol, or to have been associated with tobacco-using peers. Structural equation models suggest that the susceptibility-onset relationship largely operates in a non-product-specific manner after accounting for the general susceptibility-to-tobacco-onset relationship. Conclusions Youth susceptibility to tobacco use overlaps widely across different tobacco products and other risky behaviors. Findings from this study support a holistic approach towards the prevention of risk behaviors, supplemented by product-specific strategies when needed.

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Background: E-cigarettes have become the most commonly used tobacco products among youth in the United States (US) recently. It is not clear whether there is a causal relationship between e-cigarette use and the onset of cigarette smoking. The “common liability” theory postulates that the association between e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking can be attributed to a common risk construct of using tobacco products. This study aims to investigate the relationship between ever e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking onset in the US using a structural equation modeling approach guided by the “common liability” theory. Methods: The study population is non-institutionalized civilian adolescents living in the US, sampled in the longitudinal Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study. Information about tobacco product use was obtained via confidential self-report. A structural equation modeling approach was used to estimate the relationship between e-cigarette use at wave 1 and the onset of cigarette smoking at wave 2 after controlling for a latent construct representing a “common liability to use tobacco products.” Results:  After controlling for a latent construct representing a “common liability to use tobacco products”, ever e-cigarette use does not predict the onset of cigarette smoking (β=0.13, 95% CI= -0.07, 0.32, p=0.204). The latent “common liability to use tobacco products” is a robust predictor for the onset of cigarette smoking (β=0.38; 95% CI=0.07, 0.69; p=0.015). Conclusions: Findings from this study provide supportive evidence for the ‘common liability’ underlying observed associations between e-cigarette use and smoking onset.