In criminal cases where the evidence shows a match between the defendant and the perpetrator on some characteristic, the jury often receives statistical evidence on the incidence rate of the "matching" characteristic. Two experiments tested undergraduates' ability to use such evidence appropriately when judging the probable guilt of a criminal suspect based on written descriptions of evidence. Experiment 1 varied whether incidence rate statistics were presented as conditional probabilities or as percentages, and found the former promoted inferential errors favoring the prosecution while the latter produced more errors favoring the defense. Experiment 2 exposed subjects to two fallacious arguments on how to interpret the statistical evidence. The majority of subjects failed to detect the error in one or both of the arguments and made judgments consistent with fallacious reasoning. In both experiments a comparison of subjects' judgments to Bayesian norms revealed a general tendency to underutilize the statistical evidence. Theoretical and legal implications of these results are discussed. * This research was supported by grants to the first author from the National Science Foundation (No.SES 86-05323) and the UCI Academic Senate Committee on Research. The authors wish to thank Karen Rook and Robyn M. Dawes for comments on earlier versions of this article and John Van-Vlear for help in collecting data.

The conversion of certain bromo substituted triphenylethylenes via cyano-and ethyl imidate hydrochloride derivatives to the corresponding guanyl (amidino) substituted triphenylethylenes has been accomplished. Unsubstituted amidines, N-alkyl-, , -dialkyland N,N'-dialkylamidines were prepared and the amidine group was incorporated into various heterocyclic substituents. Structural modifications of the triphenylethylene moiety gave rise to amidine derivatives of triphenylethane, triphenylhaloethylene and 9-benzalfluorene. When cis-trans isomerism was possible, separation of isomers could be effected by fractional crystallization of the intermediate nitriles. A number of the amidines exhibited anti-inflammatory and antifungal activities.

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Ausgehend von der tfberlegung, daB die klassischen Chinolinsynthesen uber Zwischenstufen verlaufen, die man formal betrachtet als Mtlnnichbasen bezeichnen kann, wurden aus Basen vom Typ des 2-(l-Phenyl-l-aNlinomethyl)-cycloalkanons bisher kaum zugiingliche, in 3,C-Stellung anellierte 2-Phenylchinolin-Derivate dargestellt. Mannich Bases as Intermediates in Quinoline SynthesesThe classic quinoline syntheses pass intermediate stages, which can be considered aa Mannich bases. This reflexion leads to the preparation of 2-phenyl-quinolines with condensated rings in 3,4-position by ring closure of Mannich bases from the typ of 2 4 1 -phenyl-1 -anilinomethyl) -cycloalcanones. Die Slcraupsche, Doebmer-, v. Millersche und Riehmsche Chinolinsynthesen verlaufen theoretisch uber Zwischenstufen, die man als Mannichbasen bezeichnen kann: Aminkomponente jeweils Anilin SKRAUP: DOEBNER-Y. MILLER: . .3ektrophile Komponen Formaldehyd Acetaldehyd Aceton CH-acide Komponente Acetaldehyd Acetaldehyd Aceton Es mufite demnach moglich sein, entsprechende Mannichbasen zu 2,3-Dihydrochinolinen ringzuschliefien und diese dann zu Chinolinen zu aromatisieren. *) Auszug atis der Dissertation E. Schumann, Braunschweig 1967.