The most common human cancers are malignant neoplasms of the skin. Incidence of cutaneous melanoma is rising especially steeply, with minimal progress in non-surgical treatment of advanced disease. Despite significant effort to identify independent predictors of melanoma outcome, no accepted histopathological, molecular or immunohistochemical marker defines subsets of this neoplasm. Accordingly, though melanoma is thought to present with different 'taxonomic' forms, these are considered part of a continuous spectrum rather than discrete entities. Here we report the discovery of a subset of melanomas identified by mathematical analysis of gene expression in a series of samples. Remarkably, many genes underlying the classification of this subset are differentially regulated in invasive melanomas that form primitive tubular networks in vitro, a feature of some highly aggressive metastatic melanomas. Global transcript analysis can identify unrecognized subtypes of cutaneous melanoma and predict experimentally verifiable phenotypic characteristics that may be of importance to disease progression.

We introduce Probabilistic Boolean Networks (PBN) that share the appealing rule-based properties of Boolean networks, but are robust in the face of uncertainty. We show how the dynamics of these networks can be studied in the probabilistic context of Markov chains, with standard Boolean networks being special cases. Then, we discuss the relationship between PBNs and Bayesian networks--a family of graphical models that explicitly represent probabilistic relationships between variables. We show how probabilistic dependencies between a gene and its parent genes, constituting the basic building blocks of Bayesian networks, can be obtained from PBNs. Finally, we present methods for quantifying the influence of genes on other genes, within the context of PBNs. Examples illustrating the above concepts are presented throughout the paper.

Significantly different groups of genes are expressed by breast cancers with BRCA1 mutations and breast cancers with BRCA2 mutations. Our results suggest that a heritable mutation influences the gene-expression profile of the cancer.

An extensive simulation study has been performed comparing cross-validation, resubstitution and bootstrap estimation for three popular classification rules-linear discriminant analysis, 3-nearest-neighbor and decision trees (CART)-using both synthetic and real breast-cancer patient data. Comparison is via the distribution of differences between the estimated and true errors. Various statistics for the deviation distribution have been computed: mean (for estimator bias), variance (for estimator precision), root-mean square error (for composition of bias and variance) and quartile ranges, including outlier behavior. In general, while cross-validation error estimation is much less biased than resubstitution, it displays excessive variance, which makes individual estimates unreliable for small samples. Bootstrap methods provide improved performance relative to variance, but at a high computational cost and often with increased bias (albeit, much less than with resubstitution).

Mathematical and computational modeling of genetic regulatory networks promises to uncover the fundamental principles governing biological systems in an integrative and holistic manner. It also paves the way toward the development of systematic approaches for effective therapeutic intervention in disease. The central theme in this paper is the Boolean formalism as a building block for modeling complex, large-scale, and dynamical networks of genetic interactions. We discuss the goals of modeling genetic networks as well as the data requirements. The Boolean formalism is justified from several points of view. We then introduce Boolean networks and discuss their relationships to nonlinear digital filters. The role of Boolean networks in understanding cell differentiation and cellular functional states is discussed. The inference of Boolean networks from real gene expression data is considered from the viewpoints of computational learning theory and nonlinear signal processing, touching on computational complexity of learning and robustness. Then, a discussion of the need to handle uncertainty in a probabilistic framework is presented, leading to an introduction of probabilistic Boolean networks and their relationships to Markov chains. Methods for quantifying the influence of genes on other genes are presented. The general question of the potential effect of individual genes on the global dynamical network behavior is considered using stochastic perturbation analysis. This discussion then leads into the problem of target identification for therapeutic intervention via the development of several computational tools based on first-passage times in Markov chains. Examples from biology are presented throughout the paper.