The article analyzes changes in fertility and marriage rates in the Moscow agglomeration in 2020–2022. The choice of the Moscow agglomeration as an object is due to the significant influence of the share of nonresident births in Moscow on birth rates in Moscow and the Moscow region, which should be, to some extent, eliminated in order to correctly assess the impact of other factors. In 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, marriage
rates dropped significantly, especially for first marriages. A likely consequence of this was that the increase in the total fertility rate for first births in 2021 was very small, but for second and third and subsequent births was substantial. It can be assumed that the negative impact of the decline in marriage rates in 2020 on first births in 2021 was partially offset by the positive impact of the start of the maternity (family) capital for the first child. Combined with the effect of this factor, the increase in marriage rates in 2021 may have contributed to higher fertility rates for first births in the first half of 2022, while they declined for second and third and subsequent births. In addition to its effect on the decline in the number of marriages in 2020 and its indirect effect on first births, the initial period of the pandemic probably had an effect on the significant decline in the number of births in the Moscow agglomeration in January and February 2021.
The article analyzes age-specific fertility rates and the average age of mothers at birth in Moscow in comparison with Russia as a whole and St. Petersburg. Special attention is paid to these indicators differentiated by the order of birth (first, second, third), as they do not depend on the birth rate. In Moscow, the average age of mothers at birth is significantly higher than in Russia as a whole, but lower than in Saint Petersburg. Lack of data on the number of population by sex and age in Moscow's municipal districts prevents a correct comparative analysis of the age pattern of fertility for them. But based on the distribution of the numbers of births by maternal age groups, the average age at birth for 2021 is calculated.
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