Tokamak start-up is characterized by low electron densities and strong electric fields, in order to quickly raise the plasma current and temperature, allowing the plasma to fully ionize and magnetic flux surfaces to form. Such conditions are ideal for the formation of superthermal electrons, which may reduce the efficiency of ohmic heating and prevent the formation of a healthy thermal fusion plasma. This is of particular concern in ITER where engineering limitations put restrictions on the allowable electric fields and limit the prefill densities during start-up. In this study, we present a new 0D burn-through simulation tool called STREAM (STart-up Runaway Electron Analysis Model), which self-consistently evolves the plasma density, temperature and electric field, while accounting for the generation and loss of relativistic runaway electrons. After verifying the burn-through model, we investigate conditions under which runaway electrons can form during tokamak start-up as well as their effects on the plasma initiation. We find that Dreicer generation plays a crucial role in determining whether a discharge becomes runaway-dominated or not, and that a large number of runaway electrons could limit the ohmic heating of the plasma, thus preventing successful burn-through or further ramp-up of the plasma current. The runaway generation can be suppressed by raising the density via gas fuelling, but only if done sufficiently early. Otherwise a large runaway seed may have already been built up, which can avalanche even at relatively low electric fields and high densities.

A Bayesian optimization framework is used to investigate scenarios for disruptions mitigated with combined deuterium and neon injection in ITER. The optimization cost function takes into account limits on the maximum runaway current, the transported fraction of the heat loss and the current quench time. The aim is to explore the dependence of the cost function on injected densities, and provide insights into the behaviour of the disruption dynamics for representative scenarios. The simulations are conducted using the numerical framework Dream (Disruption Runaway Electron Analysis Model). We show that, irrespective of the quantities of the material deposition, multi-megaampere runaway currents will be produced in the deuterium–tritium phase of operations, even in the optimal scenarios. However, the severity of the outcome can be influenced by tailoring the radial profile of the injected material; in particular, if the injected neon is deposited at the edge region it leads to a significant reduction of both the final runaway current and the transported heat losses. The Bayesian approach allows us to map the parameter space efficiently, with more accuracy in favourable parameter regions, thereby providing us with information about the robustness of the optima.