A retrospective population-based survey was undertaken in a region of Bulgaria to determine the incidence of hip fracture. The estimated number of hip fractures nationwide for 2015 was 9322 and is predicted to increase to 11,398 in 2050. The hip fracture rates were used to create a FRAX model. Objective To describe the epidemiology of hip fractures in Bulgaria, which was then used to develop the country-specific fracture prediction FRAX® tool. Methods We carried out a retrospective population-based survey in Stara Zagora, Bulgaria, representing approximately 4.6% of the country's population. We identified hip fractures occurring in 2015, 2016 and 2017 from hospital registers and primary care sources held by the regional health insurance agency. Age-and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Bulgaria. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from neighbouring countries having FRAX models. Results The incidence of hip fracture applied nationally suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 9322 and is predicted to increase to 11,398 in 2050. FRAX-based probabilities were higher in Bulgaria than those in Serbia or Romania, lower than those in Turkey and similar to those in Greece. Conclusion The FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Bulgarian population and help guide decisions about treatment.

Background Osteoporosis is a common chronic disease characterized by low bone mineral density (BMD) and microarchitectural deterioration of the bone, which are associated with increased risk of fragility fractures. Currently the most popular tool is the fracture risk assessment model FRAX to calculate the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures (HF). Objective To investigate the prevalence of low BMD at axial sites and fracture risk in Bulgarian population. Methods We retrospectively analyzed dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan results of 12 478 subjects. Scan results included BMD and T-score assessments of lumbar spine and femoral neck. FRAX major osteoprotic fracture (MOF) and FRAX hip fracture (HF) were assessed in subjects between 40 and 90 years using BMD values. Results Of total 12478 subjects, 12119 were women and 359 were men. The mean age of the subjects was 61 years (yrs.) ± 10 yrs. The overall prevalence of low BMD at the lumbar spine was 6084/9336 subjects (65.2%). 3502/9336 subjects (37.5%) were considered as osteopenic and 2582/9336 subjects (27.7%) were considered as osteoporotic. The overall prevalence of low BMD at the femoral neck was 2036/3140 (64.8%). 1641/3140 subjects (52.3%) were classified as osteopenic and 395/3 140 subjects (12.6%) were classified as osteoporotic. The mean values of FRAX MOF and FRAX HF increased significantly with increasing the age interval. Conclusion This study is the largest epidemiological research in Bulgaria up to date about the prevalence of low BMD at axial sites.

One of the most common causes of lumbar scoliosis in adults is the decreased bone mineral density (BMD). The scoliosis in the lumbar spine has a known effect over the dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan results. The objective of this study is to assess the influence of the lumbar scoliosis on the results of the DXA scan of the lumbar spine. 1019 women aged ≥40 years underwent a DXA scan of the spine. Age, weight, height, total BMD, total Tscore of the lumbar spine were recorded. The angle of the lumbar scoliosis (Cobb’s angle) was measured from the DXA scan image using a DICOM software. The incidence of lumbar scoliosis in the current study accounts to 12.3%. Women with scoliosis showed significantly higher incidence of discrepancy in BMD T-scores between the adjacent vertebrae by more than 1 SD compared to women without scoliosis, (p=0.046). DXA results of subjects with scoliosis require more detailed evaluation of the T-scores of each vertebra to make a prompt decision about the final diagnosis.

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