The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

By using thermal mathematical modeling for the time range of 200–0 thousand years ago, the authors have been studying the role the glaciation, covered the De Long Islands and partly the Anjou Islands at the end of Middle Neopleistocene, played in the formation of permafrost and gas hydrates stability zone. For the modeling purpose, we used actual geological borehole cross-sections from the New Siberia Island. The modeling was conducted at geothermal flux densities of 50, 60, and 75 mW/m2 for glacial and extraglacial conditions. Based on the modeling results, the glaciated area is characterized by permafrost thickness of 150–200 m lower than under extraglacial conditions. The lower boundary of the gas hydrate stability zone in the glacial area at 50–60 mW/m2 is located 300 m higher than the same under extraglacial conditions. At 75 mW/m2 in the area of 20–40 m isobaths, open taliks are formed, and the gas hydrate stability zone was destroyed in the middle of the Holocene. The specified conditions and events were being formed in the course of the historical development of the glacial area with a predominance of the marine conditions peculiar to it from the middle of the Middle Neopleistocene.

Abstract. The evolution of permafrost on the Kara shelf is reconstructed for the past 125 kyr. The work includes zoning of the shelf according to geological history; compiling sea level and ground temperature scenarios within the distinguished zones; and modeling to evaluate the thickness of permafrost and the distribution of frozen, cooled and thawed deposits. Special attention is given to the scenarios of the evolution of ground temperature in key stages of history that determined the current state of the Kara shelf permafrost zone: characterization of the extensiveness and duration of the existence of the sea during stage 3 of the marine oxygen isotope stratigraphy (MIS-3), the spread of glaciation and dammed basins in MIS-2. The present shelf is divided into areas of continuous, discontinuous-to-sporadic and sporadic permafrost. Cooled deposits occur at the western and northwestern water zones and correspond to areas of MIS-2 glaciation. Permafrost occurs in the periglacial domain that is within a zone of modern sea depth from 0 to 100 m, adjacent to the continent. The distribution of permafrost is mostly sporadic in the southwest of this zone, while it is mostly continuous in the northeast. The thickness of permafrost does not exceed 100 m in the southeast and ranges from 100 to 300 m in the northeast. Thawed deposits are confined to the estuaries of large rivers and the deepwater part of the St. Anna trench. The modeling results are correlated to the available field data and are presented as a geocryological map. The formation of frozen, cooled and thawed deposits of the region is inferred to depend on the spread of ice sheets, sea level, and duration of shelf freezing and thawing periods.

Abstract. The evolution of permafrost in the Kara shelf is reconstructed for the past 125 kyr. The work includes zoning of the shelf according to geological history, compiling sea-level and ground temperature scenarios within the distinguished zones, and forward modeling to evaluate the thickness of permafrost and the extent of frozen, cold and unfrozen rocks. The modeling results are correlated to the available field data and are presented as geocryological maps. The formation of frozen, cold, and unfrozen rocks of the region is inferred to depend on the spread of ice sheets, sea level, and duration of shelf freezing and thawing periods.