This paper contributes to the methodology of trade policy analysis, specifically to the assessments of non -tariff measures. To quantifying the effects of these measures, the proportion between the variables of two gravity equations, describing the situation before and after the embargo is used. The ratio of imports per unit of the supplier’s GDP over the two compared periods (2013 and 2017) is different for two groups of trade partners, one of which includes free-trade partners while the other spans the rest of the world (with some exceptions). In the presence of the embargo the gap in the average imports per unit of the supplier’s GDP between the two groups is wider. This is a consequence of the emergence of a new trade barrier. This gap allows us to indirectly quantify the trade bans via their tariff equivalent. In this study the methodology is applied to the case of food and agricultural imports. Fish, as well as other products outside chapters 1–24 of Harmonized commodity description and coding system, are excluded. The hypothesis of the study is that the impact of the embargo on the food and agricultural imports does not exceed that of tariff and phytosanitary measures. The study rejects this hypothesis and concludes that the embargo establishes a prohibitive level of protection.

This article examines changes in food security conditions in Russia following the introduction of general and commodity-specific embargo.While the physical availability of food increased with growth in agricultural production, the effect was offset by a decline in imports. Consumer prices rose due to reduced economic availability of meat and milk. Food insecurity in Russia is caused by increasing prices. There is no import dependence as measured by the division of food import by a total merchandise export.We have discovered that increasing food prices in the Russian Federation during the 2013-2015 periods affected not only products placed under embargo, but as much other commodity groups. Embargos were imposed on goods whose prices were less likely to rise. At the same time, similar food produced in Russia was not competitive on the world market. Therefore, import substitution of this kind necessarily led to decline in the quality of food and a reduction of food security. In our opinion, fish and apples aren't a suitable object for sanctions unlike some other goods such as eggs or flour.

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The purpose of the article is to assess whether Russia is a market economy according to the set of criteria.   In the event that Russia loses the status of a country with a market economy, a statistical hypothesis was tested about a significant difference in the average values of national rates of US anti-dumping duties for market and non-market economies. The status of Russia is analyzed based on EBRD data for 2021–2022, the 2021 report of the WTO Secretariat on the trade policy of the Russian Federation. The claims expressed by the EU and the United States regarding government procurements and localization requirements at meetings of the WTO Committees on Trade in Goods and on Trade-Related Investment measures in 2020–2021 are considered. Anti-dumping duties were estimated based on the US notification of anti-dumping investigations for 10.01.2021–30.06.2021. Methods of mathematical statistics were used, as well as the IBM SPSS statistics system. According to the EBRD, Russia as a “sustainable market economy” is rated at an average of 5.9 points out of 10 possible. A lag in terms of integration was noted. The pricing policy does not cause complaints from the WTO members, however, the policy of government procurements, localization and import substitution of the Russian government does not meet the expectations of the WTO member countries. It was revealed that the exclusion of foreign manufacturers in the widely interpreted “government procurements” is the weakest element among those assessed. The specific obligations of the protocol on Russia’s accession to the WTO (paragraph 99 of the Report of the working group) “to make purchases, if they are not intended for state needs, guided by commercial considerations, without interfering with competition from enterprises of other WTO member countries for participation in such procurements” are violated. The impending loss of market status with the US could increase anti-dumping duties on Russian exports by 287 percentage points. The revealed upward trend in national rates of anti-dumping duties for countries with non-market economies allows us to conclude that the level of discrimination against countries with non-market economies is increasing. The hypothesis that the difference between the average values of the national rates of US anti-dumping duties for market and non-market economies is significant is confirmed.

The purpose of the study is to assess the risks of economic modernization caused by technological sanctions. Hypothesis: the imposed sanctions had little effect on actual imports of computer hardware components to Russia. Since the sanctions under consideration have been tightened since 2014, it was assumed that there were no fundamental changes in the structure and volume of imports. Analysis of the US export control system showed that there are four reasons for controlling the export to the Russian Federation of a number of computers and their components. For export to the Russian Federation and Belarus all applications for licenses are considered with a presumption of denial. The embargo policy provides for the restriction of exports to Russia of goods of headings 8541 (semiconductor devices) and 8542 (electronic integrated circuits). Enterprises that are considered military end users are restricted from exporting to them chips with high processing speed. The embargo covers quantum computers that are believed not to be manufactured in Russia. The dominant subheadings in the import structure are 8542 31 (microprocessors) and 8542 39 (other integrated circuits). Clusters of exporting countries have been constructed using the methods of principal components and multidimensional scaling. It is established that the main ones are China, Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia. Next, an analysis of the dynamics of imports was performed to test the hypothesis. Graphical, quantitative methods of the theory of time series, methods of mathematical statistics and regression analysis are used. For countries without export controls the increase in imports to Russia over 15 years, both in terms of processors (160 %) and integrated circuits (224 %), was an order of magnitude greater than for countries with export controls. As the share of imports from countries without export controls increases, the significance of sanctions decreases, which confirms the formulated hypothesis. At the same time, the “foreign direct product” rule, which allows the US to control exports from Taiwan, could negatively affect this dynamic.