Abstract： The goal of this study is to assess the relative contributions of different vulnerability factors to the crises in Russia and other European transition economies. The results of probit estimations and decomposition of simulated crisis probabilities suggest that external capital flows and financial sector weaknesses played a crucial part in undermining the stability of the currencies. The government finance problems and real appreciation, commonly thought to be the main causes of the crises, had a comparatively minor role in the financial turmoil in Russia and other transition economies. ［Keywords： financial crisis, currency crisis, exchange market pressure, probit］ [Article]

The purpose of this paper is to assess empirically the relative contribution of various domestic and external factors to the Russian financial crisis outburst in 1998. The results of probit estimations suggest that the highest share in the overall crisis probability was associated with external capital flows and the state of international liquidity. The banking sector fragility in spheres of foreign borrowing and domestic lending was another factor mainly responsible for the country's vulnerability to a crisis. The government finance problems and exchange rate misalignments, commonly blamed for the rouble crash, played only a minor role in the crisis eruption.