No abstract

Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population‐based incidence from the pathology‐based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population‐based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time‐linear age‐period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6% increase, of which 13.9% and 28.7% were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8%), prostate (66.7%), female breast (63.0%) and colorectal cancer (54.1%). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country.

Background: Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide with a rising incidence rate in most countries. Considering the increase in life expectancy and change in lifestyle of Iranian women, this study investigated the age-adjusted trend of breast cancer incidence during 2000-2009 and predicted its incidence to 2020. Materials and Methods: The 1997 and 2006 census results were used for the projection of female population by age through the cohort-component method over the studied years. Data from the Iranian cancer registration system were used to calculate the annual incidence rate of breast cancer. The age-adjusted incidence rate was then calculated using the WHO standard population distribution. The five-year-age-specific incidence rates were also obtained for each year and future incidence was determined using the trend analysis method. Annual percentage change (APC) was calculated through the joinpoint regression method. Results: The bias adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer increased from 16.7 per 100,000 women in 2000 to 33.6 per 100,000 women in 2009. The incidence of breast cancer had a growing trend in almost all age groups above 30 years over the studied years. In this period, the age groups of 45-65 years had the highest incidence. Investigation into the joinpoint curve showed that the curve had a steep slope with an APC of 23.4% before the first joinpoint, but became milder after this. From 2005 to 2009, the APC was calculated as 2.7%, through which the incidence of breast cancer in 2020 was predicted as 63.0 per 100,000 women. Conclusions: The age-adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer continues to increas in Iranian women. It is predicted that this trend will continue until 2020. Therefore, it seems necessary to prioritize the prevention, control and care for breast cancer in Iran.

Background: Urological cancers represent a major public problem associated with high mortality and morbidity. The pattern of these cancers varies markedly according to era, region and ethnic groups, but increasing incidence trends overall makes focused epidemiological studies important. The aim of the present study was to assess the incidence of most prevalent urological cancers in

Background: Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in Iran. The aim of this study was to explore the spatial autocorrelation and the estimation incidence rates variance among Iranian provinces. Methods:In this cross-sectional exploratory study, age-standardized incidence rates from 2004 to 2010 were analyzed in order to detect hot and cold spots map and estimate the rates using ordinary kriging Conclusions:There are relatively large differences between the geographic distribution of the breast cancer clusters in the East and North East regions of the country in comparison to other areas. Policy makers are advised to consider such provincial diversity for better understanding of factors affecting the incidence of breast cancer.