We present a global Markov chain-based material flow analysis of plastic waste of all types to estimate global virgin waste generation and waste mismanagement rates. We model nine alternative scenarios related to the elimination of plastic waste trade and improvements at various stages of the recycling chain, including “limitless” recycling promised by certain new chemical recycling technologies. We found that the elimination of trade increased global mismanagement when displaced waste was disposed but decreased mismanagement when it was instead recycled. Recycling scenarios showed little benefit for limitless recycling without prior increases in collection rates, which are currently the main constraint in the recycling chain. The most ambitious scenario only led to a 34% decrease in virgin waste generation. While significant, this implies that, given our current 40% mismanagement rate and 2050 forecasts of waste generation, landfilling and incineration capacity must increase 2.5-fold in addition to these extreme recycling targets to eliminate waste mismanagement. These results highlight the requirement for waste exporters to increase domestic recycling capacity as trade restrictions become tighter and express the urgent global need for alternative waste reduction interventions in addition to recycling.

We present a model of the global primary plastic trade network (GPPTN) and report estimates of embodied impacts including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, cumulative fossil energy demand, and embedded carbon. The network is constructed for 11 thermoplastic resins that account for the majority of global primary plastic trade. A total of 170 million metric tonnes (Mt) of primary plastics were traded in 2018, responsible for 350 Mt of embodied GHG emissions, 8.9 exajoules (EJ) of cumulative fossil energy demand and 95 Mt of embedded carbon. In 2018, embodied GHG emissions for GPPTN were comparable to annual carbon dioxide emissions of developed nations like Italy and France. The cumulative fossil energy demand of GPPTN was equivalent to 1.5 trillion barrels of crude oil and the carbon embedded in GPPTN was equivalent to carbon in 118 Mt of natural gas or 109 Mt of petroleum. Statistical inference and network measures provide evidence that a few key trade relationships account for a majority of plastic flows and subsequent embodied impacts through the network. The significant embodied impacts and materials in GPPTN must be considered going forward as policies are developed to improve the circularity and environmental sustainability of the plastics industry.