Abstract. We describe the development of the “Paleoclimate PLASIM-GENIE (Planet Simulator–Grid-Enabled Integrated Earth system model) emulator” PALEO-PGEM and its application to derive a downscaled high-resolution spatio-temporal description of the climate of the last 5×106 years. The 5×106-year time frame is interesting for a range of paleo-environmental questions, not least because it encompasses the evolution of humans. However, the choice of time frame was primarily pragmatic; tectonic changes can be neglected to first order, so that it is reasonable to consider climate forcing restricted to the Earth's orbital configuration, ice-sheet state, and the concentration of atmosphere CO2. The approach uses the Gaussian process emulation of the singular value decomposition of ensembles of the intermediate-complexity atmosphere–ocean GCM (general circulation model) PLASIM-GENIE. Spatial fields of bioclimatic variables of surface air temperature (warmest and coolest seasons) and precipitation (wettest and driest seasons) are emulated at 1000-year intervals, driven by time series of scalar boundary-condition forcing (CO2, orbit, and ice volume) and assuming the climate is in quasi-equilibrium. Paleoclimate anomalies at climate model resolution are interpolated onto the observed modern climatology to produce a high-resolution spatio-temporal paleoclimate reconstruction of the Pliocene–Pleistocene.
Aim We aimed to dissect the spatial variation of the direct and indirect effects of climate and productivity on global species richness of terrestrial tetrapods. Location Global. Time period Present. Major taxa studied Terrestrial tetrapods. Methods We used a geographically weighted path analysis to estimate and map the direct and indirect effects of temperature, precipitation and primary productivity on species richness of terrestrial tetrapods across the globe. Results We found that all relationships shift in magnitude, and even in direction, among taxonomic groups, geographical regions and connecting paths. Direct effects of temperature and precipitation are generally stronger than both indirect effects mediated by productivity and direct effects of productivity. Main conclusions Richness gradients seem to be driven primarily by effects of climate on organismal physiological limits and metabolic rates rather than by the amount of productive energy. Reptiles have the most distinct relationships across tetrapods, with a clear latitudinal pattern in the importance of temperature versus water.
Aim Tall and structurally complex forests can provide ample habitat and niche space for climbing plants, supporting high liana species richness. We test to what extent canopy height (as a proxy of 3‐D habitat structure), climate and soil interact to determine species richness in the largest clade of Neotropical lianas. We expect that the effect of canopy height on species richness is higher for lianas from closed tropical rain forests compared to riparian and savanna habitats. Location Neotropics. Time period Present. Major taxa studied Tribe Bignonieae (Bignoniaceae). Methods We used structural equation models to evaluate direct and indirect effects of canopy height, climate (temperature, precipitation and precipitation seasonality), and soil (cation exchange capacity and soil types) on overall Bignonieae species richness (339 liana species), as well as on species richness of lianas from forest, riparian and savanna habitats, respectively. We further performed multiple regression models with Moran's eigenvector maps to account for spatial autocorrelation. Results Canopy height was a key driver of liana species richness, in addition to climate and soil. Species richness of forest lianas showed a strong positive relationship with canopy height whereas the relationship was less pronounced for riparian species. Richness of savanna species decreased with increasing canopy height. Climate also explained a substantial proportion of variation in liana species richness whereas soil variables showed little explanatory power. Main conclusions The relationship between canopy height and liana species richness differs among habitats. While forest and riparian lianas benefit from tall and complex habitats that provide physical support to reach the canopy to escape low light availability in the understorey, high light availability in open habitats and an increased risk of embolism of conductive vessels for lianas with long stems living in areas with high seasonality might explain the inverse relationship between species richness and canopy height in savannas.
Although many hypotheses have been proposed to explain why humans speak so many languages and why languages are unevenly distributed across the globe, the factors that shape geographical patterns of cultural and linguistic diversity remain poorly understood. Prior research has tended to focus on identifying universal predictors of language diversity, without accounting for how local factors and multiple predictors interact. Here, we use a unique combination of path analysis, mechanistic simulation modelling, and geographically weighted regression to investigate the broadly described, but poorly understood, spatial pattern of language diversity in North America. We show that the ecological drivers of language diversity are not universal or entirely direct. The strongest associations imply a role for previously developed hypothesized drivers such as population density, resource diversity, and carrying capacity with group size limits. The predictive power of this web of factors varies over space from regions where our model predicts approximately 86% of the variation in diversity, to areas where less than 40% is explained.
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