This paper examines the dynamic relationship between daily stock and government bond returns of selected countries over the past decade to infer the state and progress of interfinancial market integration. We proceed to empirically investigate the influence of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on time-variations in inter-stock-bond market integration/segmentation dynamics using a two-step procedure. First, we document the downward trends in time-varying conditional correlations between stock and bond market returns in European countries, Japan and the US. Second, we investigate the causality and determinants of this interdependent relationship, in particular, whether the various macroeconomic convergence criteria associated with the EMU have played a significant role. We find that real economic integration and the reduction in currency risk have generally had the desired effect on financial integration but monetary policy integration may have created uncertain investor sentiments on the economic future of the European monetary union, thereby stimulating a flight to quality phenomenon. JEL Classification: C32; E44; F3; G14; G15
How does the sovereign credit ratings history provided by independent ratings agencies affect domestic financial sector development and international capital inflows to emerging countries? We address this question utilizing a comprehensive dataset of sovereign credit ratings from Standard and Poor's from 1995-2003 for a cross-section of 51 emerging markets. Within a panel data estimation framework, we examine financial sector development and the influence of sovereign credit ratings provision, controlling for various economic and corporate governance factors identified in the financial development literature. We find strong evidence that our sovereign credit rating measures do affect financial intermediary sector developments and capital flows. We find that i) long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings are important for encouraging financial intermediary development and for attracting capital flows. ii) Long-term local currency ratings stimulate domestic market growth but discourage international capital flows. iii) Short-term ratings (both foreign and local currency denominated) retard all forms of financial developments and capital flows. There are important implications in this research for policy makers to encourage the provision of longerterm credit ratings to promote financial development in emerging economies.
JEL classification: E44, E65, F33, F34, G15
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