Most modeling and statistical approaches encourage simplicity, yet ecological processes are often complex, as they are influenced by numerous dynamic environmental and biological factors. Pacific salmon abundance has been highly variable over the last few decades and most forecasting models have proven inadequate, primarily because of a lack of understanding of the processes affecting variability in survival. Better methods and data for predicting the abundance of returning adults are therefore required to effectively manage the species. We combined 31 distinct indicators of the marine environment collected over an 11-year period into a multivariate analysis to summarize and predict adult spring Chinook salmon returns to the Columbia River in 2012. In addition to forecasts, this tool quantifies the strength of the relationship between various ecological indicators and salmon returns, allowing interpretation of ecosystem processes. The relative importance of indicators varied, but a few trends emerged. Adult returns of spring Chinook salmon were best described using indicators of bottom-up ecological processes such as composition and abundance of zooplankton and fish prey as well as measures of individual fish, such as growth and condition. Local indicators of temperature or coastal upwelling did not contribute as much as large-scale indicators of temperature variability, matching the spatial scale over which salmon spend the majority of their ocean residence. Results suggest that effective management of Pacific salmon requires multiple types of data and that no single indicator can represent the complex early-ocean ecology of salmon.

Successfully shifting to a more piscivorous diet may be an important factor in the growth and survival of juvenile coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch and Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha during their first summer in the northern California Current. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling and cluster analysis of diets by size showed several distinct groupings as the salmon grew during their first marine summer. These sizebased diet differences were clearly driven by increased rates of piscivory for both species. Fish prey composition, feeding intensity, and fish prey-predator length ratios all significantly increased for coho salmon at approximately 240 mm fork length when they changed from diets dominated by juvenile rockfishes Sebastes spp., the larvae of crabs Cancer spp., and adult euphausiids to one of predominantly juvenile forage fish. As Chinook salmon grew, they gradually increased the proportional contribution (by weight) of fish prey in their diets-from 55% in the smallest length-class examined (80-100 mm) to 95% in the largest one (.375 mm). Chinook salmon fed in the same marine environments as coho salmon and consistently ate more and longer fish prey at a given size than coho salmon but had lower overall feeding intensity, perhaps owing to a higher level of prey selection. Relating subsequent interannual adult salmon returns to juvenile diets showed mixed results. During lower-survival years, coho salmon ate fewer and smaller fish prey, while subyearling Chinook salmon had less total food and more empty stomachs. We did not find consistent trophic patterns for yearling Chinook salmon in relation to their ultimate survival.

Understanding changes in the migratory and reproductive phenology of fish stocks in relation to climate change is critical for accurate ecosystem-based fisheries man- were the highest observed since annual collections first occurred in 1998, primarily due to increased abundances of Engraulis mordax (northern anchovy) and Sardinops sagax (Pacific sardine) larvae, which are normally summer spawning species in this region. Sardinops sagax and Merluccius productus (Pacific hake) exhibited an unprecedented early and northward spawning expansion during 2015-16. In addition, spawning duration was greatly increased for E. mordax, as the presence of larvae was observed throughout the majority of 2015-16, indicating prolonged and nearly continuous spawning of adults throughout the warm period. Larvae from all three of these species have never before been collected in the NCC as early in the year. In addition, other southern species were collected in the NCC during this period. This suggests that the spawning phenology and distribution of several ecologically and commercially important fish species dramatically and rapidly changed in response to the warming conditions occurring in 2014-2016, and could be an indication of future conditions under projected climate change. Changes in spawning timing and poleward migration of fish populations due to warmer ocean conditions or global climate change will negatively impact areas that were historically dependent on these fish, and change the food web structure of the areas that the fish move into with unforeseen consequences.