Most studies that examine the influence of climatic change on flora and fauna have focused on northern latitudes; however, there is increasing recognition that tropical regions are also being affected. Despite this, regions such as Madagascar, which are rich in endemic biodiversity but may have low adaptive capacity to climatic change, are poorly represented in studies examining the effects of climate variability on biota. We investigated how El Niñ o Southern Oscillations (ENSO) influence precipitation patterns in the rainforest region of southeastern Madagascar (1962Madagascar ( -2006 and then constructed models to assess the potential contribution of climatic variables on the reproductive parameters of the Milne Edward's sifaka, a threatened lemur species (Propithecus edwardsi), over a 20-year period. The Southern Oscillation Index of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific was associated with precipitation patterns including wetter wet seasons during warmer phases and drier dry seasons following cooler phases. The bestsupported models of lemur fecundity (female offspring per female that survive to 1 year of age per year) included cyclone presence during gestation and ENSO phase before conception and during the first 6 months of life. Models also suggested that heavy rains during gestation may limit birth rates and that prolonged drought during female lactation may limit first year offspring survival; although these variables were given little importance for predicting overall fecundity relative to ENSO phases and cyclone presence. Our results linking lemur reproduction with climatic variability suggest that climatic changes may be an additional threat to Madagascar's unique and already endangered flora and fauna. The association between precipitation in southeastern Madagascar and SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific suggests that dynamics of wildlife populations even in tropical areas such as Madagascar can be affected by global climate cycles making them potentially vulnerable to global climate change.

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Eulemur fulvus rufus has been described as having stable multi-male/multi-female groups, a male-biased sex ratio, and female philopatry. However, in a 16-year study of this subspecies we documented a great deal of demographic change as several groups permanently fissioned, some groups disappeared, and new groups formed. We split the dataset into two periods, 1988 to 1993 and 1994 to 2003, which coincided with the first disappearance of a study group (in August 1994) and the first permanent group fission (in December 1994). The average group size decreased by nearly half between the study periods (10.5-5.6), while the frequency of group membership changes increased (2.0-8.3 times/year), and the birth rate decreased (0.56-0.38). Females, as well as males, immigrated into study groups and transferred between groups, something that has been rarely seen in this subspecies. We also found a significant decline in the amount of fruit from the earliest part of the study to the latter part of the study. Study groups did not switch to other types of foods during periods of fruit shortage, but traveled outside of their home range areas more often over the study period. Finally, the density E. f. rufus decreased in the study area while the densities of their main food competitors, Varecia variegata and Eulemur rubriventer, increased. Although few primate populations are numerically stable over time, we suggest that female behavioral responses to decreases in fruit availability may have influenced some of the demographic changes we witnessed in this study.

Although some conservationists accept that not all species can be saved, we illustrate the difficulty in deciding which species are dispensable. In this article, we examine the possibility that the integrity of a forest relies on its entire faunal assemblage. In Madagascar, one faunal group, the lemurs, accounts for the greatest biomass and species richness among frugivores. For example, 7 of the 13 sympatric lemur species in Madagascar's eastern rainforests consume primarily fruit. Because of this, we suggest that some tree species may rely heavily on particular lemur taxa for both seed dispersal and germination. In Ranomafana National Park, the diets for four of the day-active lemur frugivores have been documented during annual cycles over a 5-year period. We predicted that, although the fruit of some plant taxa would be exploited by multiple lemur species, the fruit of others would be eaten by one lemur species alone. Analyses reveal that while lemurs overlap in a number of fruit taxa exploited, 46% (16/35) of families and 56% (29/52) of genera are eaten exclusively by one lemur species. We, therefore, predict local changes in forest composition and structure if certain of these lemur species are eliminated from a forest owing to hunting, disease, or habitat disturbance. We also suggest that this result may be of global significance because carbon sequestration by the tropical forests in Madagascar may be reduced as a result of this predicted change in forest composition.