Changes in the recurrence of extreme wind waves in the World Ocean are connected with the global climate change. The end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st centuries are characterized by significant climate warming, the reduction of the Arctic sea ice and changes in the recurrence of various extreme meteorological events. The main motivation of this research is to assess the trends of storm recurrence for the time period from 1979 up to 2020 and to analyze the connection between storminess and large-scale atmospheric circulation indexes. This research contains information about the number of storms that occurred in seven Russian Seas, including the Black, Caspian, Barents, Kara, Bering Seas, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan/East Sea. These seas are located in different climate conditions determined by the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans. The analysis of wave climate and storm activity is based on the results of wave modelling by WAVEWATCH III with input NCEP/CFSR wind and ice data. The mean plots, maximum, and 95% percentile sig-nificant wave heights are also presented in the research. Significant linear uptrends in the number of storms were found in the Kara, Caspian, Bering, Okhotsk Seas, and in the Sea of Japan. The relationship between the inter-annual variability of the number of storms and large-scale at-mospheric indexes is considered.

Wind and wave conditions are limiting factors for economic activity, and it is very important to study the long-term variability of storm activity. The main motivation of this research is to assess the impact of wind variability on the storm activity in the Caspian Sea over the past 42 years. The paper presents the analysis of a number of storms based on the results of wave model WAVEWATCH III and the Peak Over Threshold method. The mean, maximum, and 95th percentile significant wave heights were analyzed by season. The highest waves were in the Middle Caspian Sea in winter. Detailed interannual and seasonal analyses of the number and duration of storm waves were performed for the whole Caspian Sea and its separate regions. Positive significant trends were found in the whole sea. Significant positive trends in the number and duration of storms were found for the North and Middle Caspian. In the South Caspian, the trends were negative and not significant. High correlations were found between the number of storms and events with wind speed > 10–14 m/s and 95th percentile wind speed. Positive trends in the number of storms in the Middle Caspian were caused by positive trends in extreme wind situations.

Аннотация. В статье выполнен анализ штормовой активности в Карском море, основанный на данных моделирования ветрового волнения по модели WAVEWATCHIII за период с 1979 по 2019 г. В качестве исходных данных использовались данные о ветре и концентрации льда из реанализов NCEP/CFSR/CFSv2. Вычисления выполнялись на неструктурной вычислительной сетке с разрешением от 700 м до 20 км. Выполнен анализ повторяемости случаев штормового волнения. Обнаружены положительные тренды для штормов с критериями 2-5 м за период с 1979 по 2019 г. Найден положительный значимый тренд для продолжительности штормов высотой > 2 м, равный 5 ч / 10 лет. Установлены два основных района группировки штормов: граница с Баренцевым морем и восточнее Карских ворот.Ключевые слова: штормовая активность, ветровые волны, WAWEWATCHIII, Карское море, моделирование волнения.Благодарности. Работа С. А. Мысленкова выполнена при поддержке Междисциплинарной научно-образовательной школы Московского государственного университета имени М. В. Ломоносова «Будущее планеты и глобальные изменения окружающей среды». Работа Е. Е. Кругловой подготовлена в рамках выполнения темы № FMWE-2021-0002 государственного задания Института океанологии им. П. П. Ширшова РАН.