The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

Interpreting the vulnerability of pelagic calcifiers to ocean acidification (OA) is enhanced by an understanding of their critical thresholds and how these thresholds are modified by other climate change stressors (e.g., warming). To address this need, we undertook a three-part data synthesis for pteropods, one of the calcifying zooplankton group. We conducted the first meta-analysis and threshold analysis of literature characterizing pteropod responses to OA and warming by synthetizing dataset comprising of 2,097 datapoints. Meta-analysis revealed the extent to which responses among studies conducted on differing life stages and disparate geographies could be integrated into a common analysis. The results demonstrated reduced calcification, growth, development, and survival to OA with increased magnitude of sensitivity in the early life stages, under prolonged duration, and with the concurrent exposure of OA and warming, but not species-specific sensitivity. Second, breakpoint analyses identified OA thresholds for several endpoints: dissolution (mild and severe), calcification, egg development, shell growth, and survival. Finally, consensus by a panel of pteropod experts was used to verify thresholds and assign confidence scores for five endpoints with a sufficient signal: noise ratio to develop life-stage specific, duration-dependent thresholds. The range of aragonite saturation state from 1.5-0.9 provides a risk range from early warning to lethal impacts, thus providing a rigorous basis for vulnerability assessments to guide climate change management responses, including an evaluation of the efficacy of local pollution management. In addition, meta-analyses with OA, and warming shows increased vulnerability in two pteropod processes, i.e., shell dissolution and survival, and thus pointing toward increased threshold sensitivity under combined stressor effect.

Shelled pteropods play key roles in the global carbon cycle and food webs of various ecosystems. Their thin external shell is sensitive to small changes in pH, and shell dissolution has already been observed in areas where aragonite saturation state is ~1. A decline in pteropod abundance has the potential to disrupt trophic networks and directly impact commercial fisheries. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how pteropods will be affected by global environmental change, particularly ocean acidification. In this study, physiological and molecular approaches were used to investigate the response of the Mediterranean pteropod, Heliconoides inflatus, to pH values projected for 2100 under a moderate emissions trajectory (RCP6.0). Pteropods were subjected to pH 7.9 for 3 days, and gene expression levels, calcification and respiration rates were measured relative to pH 8.1 controls. Gross calcification decreased markedly under low pH conditions, while genes potentially involved in calcification were up-regulated, reflecting the inability of pteropods to maintain calcification rates. Gene expression data imply that under low pH conditions, both metabolic processes and protein synthesis may be compromised, while genes involved in acid-base regulation were up-regulated. A large number of genes related to nervous system structure and function were also up-regulated in the low pH treatment, including a GABA receptor subunit. This observation is particularly interesting because GABA receptor disturbances, leading to altered behavior, have been documented in several other marine animals after exposure to elevated CO . The up-regulation of many genes involved in nervous system function suggests that exposure to low pH could have major effects on pteropod behavior. This study illustrates the power of combining physiological and molecular approaches. It also reveals the importance of behavioral analyses in studies aimed at understanding the impacts of low pH on marine animals.