Establishing accurate population size estimates (PSE) is important for prioritizing and planning provision of services. Multiple source capture-recapture sampling method increases PSE accuracy and reliability. In August 2018, the three-source capture-recapture (3S-CRC) method was employed with a stringent assumption of sample independence to estimate the number of female sex workers (FSW) in Rwanda. Using Rwanda 2017 FSW hotspots mapping data, street and venue based FSW were sampled at the sector level of each province and tagged with two unique gifts. Each capture was completed within one week to minimize FSW migration between provinces and recall bias. The three captures had 1042, 1204 and 1488 FSW. There were 111 FSW recaptured between captures 1 and 2; 237 between captures 2 and 3; 203 between captures 1 and 3, and 46 captured in all three. The PSE for street and venue based FSW in Rwanda lies within 95% credible set: 8,328-22,806 with corresponding median of 13,716 FSW. The 3S-CRC technique was low-cost and relatively easy to use for PSE in hard-to-reach populations. This estimate provides the basis for determining the denominators to assess HIV program performance towards FSW and epidemic control and warrants further PSE for home-and cyber-based FSW in Rwanda.

Background We assessed the prevalence of acquired HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) and associated factors among patients receiving first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Rwanda. Methods This cross-sectional study included 702 patients receiving first-line ART for at least 6 months with last viral load (VL) results ≥1000 copies/mL. Blood plasma samples were subjected to VL testing; specimens with unsuppressed VL were genotyped to identify HIVDR-associated mutations. Data were analysed using STATA/SE. Results Median time on ART was 86.4 months (interquartile range [IQR], 44.8–130.2 months), and median CD4 count at ART initiation was 311 cells/mm3 (IQR, 197–484 cells/mm3). Of 414 (68.2%) samples with unsuppressed VL, 378 (88.3%) were genotyped. HIVDR included 347 (90.4%) non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor- (NNRTI), 291 (75.5%) nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor- (NRTI) and 13 (3.5%) protease inhibitor (PI) resistance-associated mutations. The most common HIVDR mutations were K65R (22.7%), M184V (15.4%) and D67N (9.8%) for NRTIs and K103N (34.4%) and Y181C/I/V/YC (7%) for NNRTIs. Independent predictors of acquired HIVDR included current ART regimen of zidovudine + lamivudine + nevirapine (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.333 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.022–10.870]; p = 0.046) for NRTI resistance and current ART regimen of tenofovir + emtricitabine + nevirapine (aOR, 0.148 [95% CI: 0.028–0.779]; p = 0.025), zidovudine + lamivudine + efavirenz (aOR, 0.105 [95% CI: 0.016–0.693]; p = 0.020) and zidovudine + lamivudine + nevirapine (aOR, 0.259 [95% CI: 0.084–0.793]; p = 0.019) for NNRTI resistance. History of ever switching ART regimen was associated with NRTI resistance (aOR, 2.53 [95% CI: 1.198–5.356]; p = 0.016) and NNRTI resistance (aOR, 3.23 [95% CI: 1.435–7.278], p = 0.005). Conclusion The prevalence of acquired HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) was high among patient failing to re-suppress VL and was associated with current ART regimen and ever switching ART regimen. The findings of this study support the current WHO guidelines recommending that patients on an NNRTI-based regimen should be switched based on a single viral load test and suggests that national HIV VL monitoring of patients receiving ART has prevented long-term treatment failure that would result in the accumulation of TAMs and potential loss of efficacy of all NRTI used in second-line ART as the backbone in combination with either dolutegravir or boosted PIs.

Background Globally, men who have sex with men (MSM) continue to bear a disproportionately high burden of HIV infection. Rwanda experiences a mixed HIV epidemic, which is generalized in the adult population, with aspects of a concentrated epidemic among certain key populations at higher risk of HIV infection, including MSM. Limited data exist to estimate the population size of MSM at a national scale; hence, an important piece is missing in determining the denominators to use in estimates for policy makers, program managers, and planners to effectively monitor HIV epidemic control. Objective The aims of this study were to provide the first national population size estimate (PSE) and geographic distribution of MSM in Rwanda. Methods Between October and December 2021, a three-source capture-recapture method was used to estimate the MSM population size in Rwanda. Unique objects were distributed to MSM through their networks (first capture), who were then tagged according to MSM-friendly service provision (second capture), and a respondent-driven sampling survey was used as the third capture. Capture histories were aggregated in a 2k–1 contingency table, where k indicates the number of capture occasions and “1” and “0” indicate captured and not captured, respectively. Statistical analysis was performed in R (version 4.0.5) and the Bayesian nonparametric latent-class capture-recapture package was used to produce the final PSE with 95% credibility sets (CS). Results We sampled 2465, 1314, and 2211 MSM in capture one, two, and three, respectively. There were 721 recaptures between captures one and two, 415 recaptures between captures two and three, and 422 recaptures between captures one and three. There were 210 MSM captured in all three captures. The total estimated population size of MSM above 18 years old in Rwanda was 18,100 (95% CS 11,300-29,700), corresponding to 0.70% (95% CI 0.4%-1.1%) of total adult males. Most MSM reside in the city of Kigali (7842, 95% CS 4587-13,153), followed by the Western province (2469, 95% CS 1994-3518), Northern province (2375, 95% CS 842-4239), Eastern province (2287, 95% CS 1927-3014), and Southern province (2109, 95% CS 1681-3418). Conclusions Our study provides, for the first time, a PSE of MSM aged 18 years or older in Rwanda. MSM are concentrated in the city of Kigali and are almost evenly distributed across the other 4 provinces. The national proportion estimate bounds of MSM out of the total adult males includes the World Health Organization’s minimum recommended proportion (at least 1.0%) based on 2012 census population projections for 2021. These results will inform denominators to be used for estimating service coverage and fill existing information gaps to enable policy makers and planners to monitor the HIV epidemic among MSM nationally. There is an opportunity for conducting small-area MSM PSEs for subnational-level HIV treatment and prevention interventions.

BACKGROUND Globally, men who have sex with men (MSM) continue to bear a disproportionately high burden of HIV infection. Rwanda experiences a mixed HIV epidemic, which is generalized in the adult population, with aspects of a concentrated epidemic among certain key populations at higher risk of HIV infection, including MSM. Limited data exist to estimate the population size of MSM at a national scale; hence, an important piece is missing in determining the denominators to use in estimates for policy makers, program managers, and planners to effectively monitor HIV epidemic control. OBJECTIVE The aims of this study were to provide the first national population size estimate (PSE) and geographic distribution of MSM in Rwanda. METHODS Between October and December 2021, a three-source capture-recapture method was used to estimate the MSM population size in Rwanda. Unique objects were distributed to MSM through their networks (first capture), who were then tagged according to MSM-friendly service provision (second capture), and a respondent-driven sampling survey was used as the third capture. Capture histories were aggregated in a 2k–1 contingency table, where k indicates the number of capture occasions and “1” and “0” indicate captured and not captured, respectively. Statistical analysis was performed in R (version 4.0.5) and the Bayesian nonparametric latent-class capture-recapture package was used to produce the final PSE with 95% credibility sets (CS). RESULTS We sampled 2465, 1314, and 2211 MSM in capture one, two, and three, respectively. There were 721 recaptures between captures one and two, 415 recaptures between captures two and three, and 422 recaptures between captures one and three. There were 210 MSM captured in all three captures. The total estimated population size of MSM above 18 years old in Rwanda was 18,100 (95% CS 11,300-29,700), corresponding to 0.70% (95% CI 0.4%-1.1%) of total adult males. Most MSM reside in the city of Kigali (7842, 95% CS 4587-13,153), followed by the Western province (2469, 95% CS 1994-3518), Northern province (2375, 95% CS 842-4239), Eastern province (2287, 95% CS 1927-3014), and Southern province (2109, 95% CS 1681-3418). CONCLUSIONS Our study provides, for the first time, a PSE of MSM aged 18 years or older in Rwanda. MSM are concentrated in the city of Kigali and are almost evenly distributed across the other 4 provinces. The national proportion estimate bounds of MSM out of the total adult males includes the World Health Organization’s minimum recommended proportion (at least 1.0%) based on 2012 census population projections for 2021. These results will inform denominators to be used for estimating service coverage and fill existing information gaps to enable policy makers and planners to monitor the HIV epidemic among MSM nationally. There is an opportunity for conducting small-area MSM PSEs for subnational-level HIV treatment and prevention interventions.