Research Summary Why do some firms increase R&D investments in the face of uncertainty, while others do not? Contrary to common wisdom, this study posits that uncertainty prompts firms to invest in R&D. The value to invest under uncertainty is, however, bounded by a firm's learning conditions (i.e., human capital, relatedness of innovation activities, and industry maturity). An empirical test on a cross‐industry panel of 551 business divisions of manufacturing firms reveals how organization‐environment interactions determine the firm‐specific value to invest in learning prior to full‐scale commercialization. The insights help to bridge real options theory and the learning literature. Managerial Summary Uncertainty about the market environment makes investment decisions in R&D and the commercialization of new products a challenge: should firms “wait and see” until uncertainty resolves to avoid the risk of betting on the wrong product or commit further resources regardless? Our analysis suggests that manufacturing firms often take a mixed approach (“act and see”). While deferring investments in the commercialization of new products, they undertake further R&D to inform decision making by insights that would otherwise be unavailable. However, we find that the benefit of such practice depends on the learning conditions of the individual firm. What is risky for firms with disadvantages in human capital and technology development is value enhancing for firms with good foundations for learning through R&D.

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