Forty-six mining-induced seismic events with moment magnitude between -1.2 and 2.1 that possibly caused damage were studied. The events occurred between 2008 and 2013 at mining level 850-1350 m in the Kiirunavaara Mine (Sweden). Hypocenter locations were refined using from 6 to 130 sensors at distances of up to 1400 m. The source parameters of the events were re-estimated using spectral analysis with a standard Brune model (slope -2). The radiated energy for the studied events varied from 4.7 9 10 -1 to 3.8 9 10 7 J, the source radii from 4 to 110 m, the apparent stress from 6.2 9 10 2 to 1.1 9 10 6 Pa, energy ratio (E s /E p ) from 1.2 to 126, and apparent volume from 1.8 9 10 3 to 1.1 9 10 7 m 3 . 90% of the events were located in the footwall, close to the ore contact. The events were classified as shear/fault slip (FS) or non-shear (NS) based on the E s /E p ratio ([10 or \10). Out of 46 events 15 events were classified as NS located almost in the whole range between 840 and 1360 m, including many events below the production. The rest 31 FS events were concentrated mostly around the production levels and slightly below them. The relationships between some source parameters and seismic moment/moment magnitude showed dependence on the type of the source mechanism. The energy and the apparent stress were found to be three times larger for FS events than for NS events.
Back analysis for evaluation of the merits of the short-term seismic hazard indicators (precursors) used in the mines and their potential application for early warning was carried out for fourteen seismic events that potentially caused damage in Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden, selected according to our designed criteria. Five short-term hazard indicators: Seismic Activity Rate (SAR), Cumulative Seismic Moment (CSM), Energy Index (EI), Cumulative Apparent Volume (CAV) and Seismic Apparent Stress Frequency (ASF) were tested. The behaviour of the indicators was studied using the parameters of all seismic events within a sphere around the hypocenter location of the analyzed seismic source within one month before the main (damaging) event. The size of the sphere equals the estimated radius of the analyzed seismic source (area of inelastic deformation). mXrap software (Australian Centre for Geomechanics) was used for data visualization, manipulation, analysis and extraction. The results from the main analysis showed a good agreement between the expected and actual behaviour of the SAR, CSM and CAV indicators. In overall, CSM and CAV ranked the highest positive/expected behaviour followed by SAR (Table 3). The EI and ASF ranked lowest and showed to be sensitive to the number of events within the source sphere. The rate of false warnings and missed warnings was also investigated for the 25 days-long period before the damaging events. A similar trend was observed as for the main analysed event. The results from this study can be used for further improvement of the short-term hazard estimations and early warning system in deep underground mines.
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