Ectothermic organisms, such as insects and reptiles, rely on external heat sources to control body temperature and possess physiological and behavioral traits that are temperature dependent. It has therefore been hypothesised that differences in body temperature resulting from phenotypic properties, such as color pattern, may translate into selection against thermally inferior phenotypes. We tested for costs and benefits of pale versus dark coloration by comparing the behaviors (i.e., basking duration and bouts) of pygmy grasshopper (Tetrix undulata) individuals exposed to experimental situations imposing a trade-off between temperature regulation and feeding. We used pairs consisting of two full-siblings of the same sex that represented different (genetically coded) color morphs but had shared identical conditions from the time of fertilization. Our results revealed significant differences in behavioral thermoregulation between dark and pale individuals in females, but not in males. Pale females spent more time feeding than dark females, regardless of whether feeding was associated with a risk of either hypothermia or overheating. In contrast, only minor differences in behavior (if any) were evident between individuals that belonged to the same color morph but had been painted black or gray to increase and decrease their heating rates. This suggests that the behavioral differences between individuals belonging to different color morphs are genetically determined, rather than simply reflecting a response to different heating rates. To test for effects of acclimation on behaviors, we used pairs of individuals that had been reared from hatchlings to adults under controlled conditions in either low or high temperature. The thermal regime experienced during rearing had little effect on behaviors during the experiments reported above, but significantly influenced the body temperatures selected in a laboratory thermal gradient. In females (but not in males) preferred body temperature also varied among individuals born to mothers belonging to different color morphs, suggesting that a genetic correlation exists between color pattern and temperature preferences. Collectively, these findings, at least in females, are consistent with the hypothesis of multiple-trait coevolution and suggest that the different color morphs represent alternative evolutionary strategies.

The Iberian lynx (Lynxpardinus) has suffered severe population declines in the twentieth century and is now on the brink of extinction 1 . Climate change could further threaten the survival of the species 2 , but its forecast effects are being neglected in recovery plans 3,4 . Quantitative estimates of extinction risk under climate change have so far mostly relied on inferences from correlative projections of species' habitat shifts 5 . Here we use ecological niche models coupled to metapopulation simulations with source-sink dynamics 6,7 to directly investigate the combined effects of climate change, prey availability and management intervention on the persistence of the Iberian lynx. Our approach is unique in that it explicitly models dynamic bi-trophic species interactions in a climate change setting. We show that anticipated climate change will rapidly and severely decrease lynx abundance and probably lead to its extinction in the wild within 50 years, even with strong global efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In stark contrast, we also show that a carefully planned reintroduction programme, accounting for the effects of climate change, prey abundance and habitat connectivity, could avert extinction of the lynx this century. Our results demonstrate, for the first time, why considering prey availability, climate change and their interaction in models is important when designing policies to prevent future biodiversity loss.The 9 Rui Nabeiro Biodiversity Chair, CIBIO, University of Évora, Évora, 7000, Portugal, 10 Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark. *e-mail: maraujo@mncn.csic.es towards increasing the carrying capacity of reintroduction sites through habitat restoration, relocating rabbits and limiting direct anthropogenic-related fatalities 4,13 .Although a well-financed effort to avert the extinction of this charismatic species is underway (> e94 million funding since 1994) 4 , non-accounted threats, such asclimatechangeanditsinfluenceonpreyabundance,arenotbeing considered in recovery plans.Here we provide the most comprehensive analysis of the likely effects of climate change yet for a threatened vertebrate. So far, models used to investigate how climate change will

Ectothermic organisms, such as insects and reptiles, rely on external heat sources to control body temperature and possess physiological and behavioral traits that are temperature dependent. It has therefore been hypothesised that differences in body temperature resulting from phenotypic properties, such as color pattern, may translate into selection against thermally inferior phenotypes. We tested for costs and benefits of pale versus dark coloration by comparing the behaviors (i.e., basking duration and bouts) of pygmy grasshopper (Tetrix undulata) individuals exposed to experimental situations imposing a trade-off between temperature regulation and feeding. We used pairs consisting of two full-siblings of the same sex that represented different (genetically coded) color morphs but had shared identical conditions from the time of fertilization. Our results revealed significant differences in behavioral thermoregulation between dark and pale individuals in females, but not in males. Pale females spent more time feeding than dark females, regardless of whether feeding was associated with a risk of either hypothermia or overheating. In contrast, only minor differences in behavior (if any) were evident between individuals that belonged to the same color morph but had been painted black or gray to increase and decrease their heating rates. This suggests that the behavioral differences between individuals belonging to different color morphs are genetically determined, rather than simply reflecting a response to different heating rates. To test for effects of acclimation on behaviors, we used pairs of individuals that had been reared from hatchlings to adults under controlled conditions in either low or high temperature. The thermal regime experienced during rearing had little effect on behaviors during the experiments reported above, but significantly influenced the body temperatures selected in a laboratory thermal gradient. In females (but not in males) preferred body temperature also varied among individuals born to mothers belonging to different color morphs, suggesting that a genetic correlation exists between color pattern and temperature preferences. Collectively, these findings, at least in females, are consistent with the hypothesis of multiple-trait coevolution and suggest that the different color morphs represent alternative evolutionary strategies.

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