Early identification of patients with severe (discriminant function > 32) alcoholic hepatitis (AH) not responding to corticosteroids is crucial. We generated a specific prognostic model (Lille model) to identify candidates early on for alternative therapies. Three hundred twenty patients with AH prospectively treated by corticosteroids were included in the development cohort and 118 in its validation. Baseline data and a change in bilirubin at day 7 were tested. The model was generated by logistic regression. The model combining six reproducible variables (age, renal insufficiency, albumin, prothrombin time, bilirubin, and evolution of bilirubin at day 7) was highly predictive of death at 6 months (P < 0.000001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of the Lille model was 0.89 ؎ 0.02, higher than the Child-Pugh (0.62 ؎ 0.04, P < 0.00001) or Maddrey scores (0.66 ؎ 0.04, P < 0.00001). In the validation cohort, its AUROC was 0.85 ؎ 0.04, still higher than the other models, including MELD (0.72 ؎ 0.05, P ‫؍‬ 0.01) and Glasgow scores (0.67 ؎ 0.05, P ‫؍‬ 0.0008). Patients above the ideal cutoff of 0.45 showed a marked decrease in 6-month survival as compared with others: 25% ؎ 3.8% versus 85% ؎ 2.5%, P < 0.0001. This cutoff was able to identify approximately 75% of the observed deaths. Conclusion: In the largest cohort to date of patients with severe AH, we demonstrate that the term "nonresponder" can now be extended to patients with a Lille score above 0.45, which corresponds to 40% of cases. Early identification of subjects with substantial risk of death according to the Lille model will improve management of patients suffering from severe AH and will aid in the design of future studies for alternative therapies. (HEPATOLOGY 2007;45:1348-1354 T he treatment of severe forms of alcoholic hepatitis (AH) constitutes a major challenge in management of severe alcoholic liver disease. Before the era of the Maddrey function (DF), 1,2 clinicians faced substantial difficulties in identifying subgroups of patients with high risk of death over a short term; as a consequence, survival of untreated patients enrolled in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) ranged from 0 to 81%. 3 Since the use of DF (DF Ն 32) in several RCTs, 1,4-6 spontaneous 2-month survival has been approximately 50%. The DF clearly demonstrates the tremendous progress provided by elaborating specific prognostic functions for AH. The advantage of accurate models has been confirmed by the growing importance of the MELD score in the selection of candidates for liver transplantation. [7][8][9] In patients with DF Ն 32, several RCTs and a recent meta-analysis showed that corticosteroids improve shortterm survival. 1,5,10-14 However, novel strategies or molecules are required, in light of the fact that approximately 40% of patients die at 6 months. 15 Therefore, improvement in the prediction of mortality in severe AH is warranted. However, we lack evidence supporting the higher efficacy of new models such as MELD and Glasgow scores compa...

BackgroundLiver biopsy is considered as the gold standard for assessing non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) histologic lesions in patients with severe obesity. The aim of this study was to perform an overview of 3 studies which assessed the performance of non-invasive markers of fibrosis (FibroTest), steatosis (SteatoTest) and steato-hepatitis (NashTest, ActiTest) in these patients.Methods494 patients with interpretable biopsy and biomarkers using of three prospective cohorts of patients with severe obesity (BMI >35 kg/m2) were included. Histology (NAS score) and the biochemical measurements were blinded to any other characteristics. The area under the ROC curves (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were assessed. Weighted AUROC (wAUROC Obuchowski method) was used to prevent multiple testing and spectrum effect. Two meta-analyses were performed; one used the individual patient, and the other a classical meta-analysis.ResultsPrevalence of advanced fibrosis (bridging) was 9.9%, advanced steatosis (>33%) 54.2%, and steato-hepatitis (NAS score >4) 17.2%. The mean wAUROCs were: FibroTest for advanced fibrosis (95%CI; significance)  =  0.85 (0.83–0.87; P<0.0001); SteatoTest for advanced steatosis = 0.80 (0.79–0.83); and ActiTest for steato-hepatitis = 0.84 (0.82–0.86; P<0.0001). Using the classical meta-analysis (random effect model) the mean AUROCs were: FibroTest = 0.72 (0.63–0.79; P<0.0001); SteatoTest = 0.71 (0.66–0.75; P<0.0001); and ActiTest = 0.74 (0.68–0.79; P<0.0001). Despite more metabolic risk factors in one cohort, results were similar according to gender, presence of diabetes and between the 3 cohorts.ConclusionIn patients with severe obesity, a significant diagnostic performance of FibroTest, SteatoTest and ActiTest was observed for liver lesions.

IMPORTANCE Prednisolone or pentoxifylline is recommended for severe alcoholic hepatitis, a life-threatening disease. The benefit of their combination is unknown. OBJECTIVE To determine whether the addition of pentoxifylline to prednisolone is more effective than prednisolone alone. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Multicenter, randomized, double-blind clinical trial conducted between December 2007 and March 2010 in 1 Belgian and 23 French hospitals of 270 patients aged 18 to 70 years who were heavy drinkers with severe biopsy-proven alcoholic hepatitis, as indicated by recent onset of jaundice in the prior 3 months and a Maddrey score of at least 32. Duration of follow-up was 6 months. The last included patient completed the study in October 2010. None of the patients were lost to follow-up for the main outcome.INTERVENTION Patients were randomly assigned to receive either a combination of 40 mg of prednisolone once a day and 400 mg of pentoxifylline 3 times a day (n=133) for 28 days, or 40 mg of prednisolone and matching placebo (n=137) for 28 days.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Six-month survival, with secondary end points of development of hepatorenal syndrome and response to therapy based on the Lille model, which defines treatment nonresponders after 7 days of initiation of treatment. RESULTSIn intention-to-treat analysis, 6-month survival was not different in the pentoxifyllineprednisolone and placebo-prednisolone groups (69.9% [95% CI, 62.1%-77.7%] vs 69.2% [95% CI; 61.4%-76.9%], P = .91), corresponding to 40 vs 42 deaths, respectively. In multivariable analysis, only the Lille model and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score were independently associated with 6-month survival. At 7 days, response to therapy assessed by the Lille model was not significantly different between the 2 groups (Lille model score, 0.41 [95% CI, 0.36-0.46] vs 0.40 [95% CI, 0.35-0.45], P = .80). The probability of being a responder was not different in both groups (62.6% [95% CI, 53.9%-71.3%] vs 61.9% [95% CI, 53.7%-70.3%], P = .91). The cumulative incidence of hepatorenal syndrome at 6 months was not significantly different in the pentoxifylline-prednisolone and the placebo-prednisolone groups (8.4% [95% CI, 4.8%-14.8%] vs 15.3% [95% CI, 10.3%-22.7%], P = .07). CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCEIn patients with alcoholic hepatitis, 4-week treatment with pentoxifylline and prednisolone, compared with prednisolone alone, did not result in improved 6-month survival. The study may have been underpowered to detect a significant difference in incidence of hepatorenal syndrome, which was less frequent in the group receiving pentoxifylline.

By combining results from static and dynamic scoring systems for liver disease, we can better predict outcomes of patients with alcoholic hepatitis, compared with either model alone. This may help patient management and design of clinical trials.

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