1. Rear-edge populations at the warm margin of species distribution are small, isolated and face environmental conditions at the limit of species bioclimatic envelope. Intraspecific phenotypic variation contributing to the persistence of peripheral populations is expected to become increasingly important under future climate conditions to avoid local extirpation where range shifts lag behind climate change velocity.2. We investigated the putative role of intraspecific phenotypic variation for the maintenance of rear-edge populations of fire-prone jack pine (Pinus banksiana), an obligate pyriscent boreal species. We assessed whether variation in cone serotiny is associated with the population trajectory of marginal stands located south of the boreal biome, in the temperate forest where natural wildfires are infrequent and unpredictable. To this end, we estimated stand-scale serotiny, minimal age and tree size structure in 26 jack pine stands from the rear edge (n = 17 sites) and the core (n = 9 sites) of the species' range in eastern Canada.3. On average, rear-edge jack pine populations are less serotinous albeit more variably compared with range-core populations where serotiny is more uniformly high. Rear-edge stands are generally older and display reverse J-shape tree size structure indicative of a multi-aged demographic equilibrium, whereas rangecore stands are younger and show a unimodal stand structure depicting a single ageing cohort generally lacking interfire recruitment. Eco-evolutionary dynamics shifts from a dependency on wildfires in range-core populations to stands that can regenerate and persist without recurrent fires at the rear edge, where stand-scale serotiny reaches values below 85%. 4.Synthesis. Unlike range-core populations, rear-edge jack pine populations can locally rely on a dual life-history strategy to ensure both steady recruitment during fire-free intervals and successful postfire regeneration. This capacity to cope with infrequent and unpredictable fire regime should increase the resilience and resistance of jack pine populations as global changes alter fire dynamics of the boreal forest. More generally, unique intraspecific phenotypic variation in rear-edge populations contributes to long-term species persistence in marginal

Premise: Understanding mechanisms fostering long-term persistence of marginal populations should provide key insights about species resilience facing climate change. Cone serotiny is a key adaptive trait in Pinus banksiana (jack pine), which shows phenotypic variation according to the fire regime. Compared to range-core populations within the fire-prone boreal forest, low and variable serotiny in rear-edge populations suggest local adaptation to uncommon and unpredictable wildfire regime. We assessed environmental/physiological factors that might modulate intraspecific variation in cone serotiny. Methods: We experimentally subjected closed cones to incrementing temperatures, then tested seed germination to determine whether and how various ecological factors (cone age, branch height, tree size, tree age) are related to cone dehiscence and seed viability in jack pines from rear-edge and range-core populations in eastern Canada. Results: Cones from rear-edge populations dehisce at a lower opening temperature, which increases with cone age. Cones from range-core stands open at a more constant, yet higher temperature. Cones from rear-edge stands take between 13 and 27 years to reach the level of serotiny achieved at the range core. At the rear edge, seed viability is steady (51%), whereas it decreases from 70% to 30% in 20 years at the range core. Conclusions: We inferred the mechanisms of a bet-hedging strategy in rear-edge populations, which ensures steady recruitment during fire-free intervals and successful postfire regeneration. This capacity to cope with infrequent and unpredictable fire regime should increase the resilience of jack pine populations as global changes alter fire dynamics of the boreal forest.

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