Context. Within the Babcock-Leighton framework for the solar dynamo, the strength of a cycle is expected to depend on the strength of the dipole moment or net hemispheric flux during the preceding minimum, which depends on how much flux was present in each hemisphere at the start of the previous cycle and how much net magnetic flux was transported across the equator during the cycle. Some of this transport is associated with the random walk of magnetic flux tubes subject to granular and supergranular buffeting, some of it is due to the advection caused by systematic cross-equatorial flows such as those associated with the inflows into active regions, and some crosses the equator during the emergence process. Aims. We aim to determine how much of the cross-equatorial transport is due to small-scale disorganized motions (treated as diffusion) compared with other processes such as emergence flux across the equator. Methods. We measure the cross-equatorial flux transport using Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms, estimating both the total and diffusive fluxes. Results. Occasionally a large sunspot group, with a large tilt angle emerges crossing the equator, with flux from the two polarities in opposite hemispheres. The largest of these events carry a substantial amount of flux across the equator (compared to the magnetic flux near the poles). We call such events cross-equatorial flux plumes. There are very few such large events during a cycle, which introduces an uncertainty into the determination of the amount of magnetic flux transported across the equator in any particular cycle. As the amount of flux which crosses the equator determines the amount of net flux in each hemisphere, it follows that the cross-equatorial plumes introduce an uncertainty in the prediction of the net flux in each hemisphere. This leads to an uncertainty in predictions of the strength of the following cycle.

We studied the effect of the perturbation of the meridional flow in the activity belts detected by local helioseismology on the development and strength of the surface magnetic field at the polar caps. We carried out simulations of synthetic solar cycles with a flux transport model, which follows the cyclic evolution of the surface field determined by flux emergence and advective transport by nearsurface flows. In each hemisphere, an axisymmetric band of latitudinal flows converging towards the central latitude of the activity belt was superposed onto the background poleward meridional flow. The overall effect of the flow perturbation is to reduce the latitude separation of the magnetic polarities of a bipolar magnetic region and thus diminish its contribution to the polar field. As a result, the polar field maximum reached around cycle activity minimum is weakened by the presence of the meridional flow perturbation. For a flow perturbation consistent with helioseismic observations, the polar field is reduced by about 18% compared to the case without inflows. If the amplitude of the flow perturbation depends on the cycle strength, its effect on the polar field provides a nonlinearity that could contribute to limiting the amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton type dynamo.

Context. The Sun's polar fields and open flux around the time of activity minima have been considered to be strongly correlated with the strength of the subsequent maximum of solar activity. Aims. We aim to investigate the behavior of a Babcock-Leighton dynamo with a source poloidal term that is based on the observed sunspot areas and tilts. In particular, we investigate whether the toroidal fields at the base of convection zone from the model are correlated with the observed solar cycle activity maxima. Methods. We used a flux transport dynamo model that includes convective pumping and a poloidal source term based on the historical record of sunspot group areas, locations, and tilt angles to simulate solar cycles 15 to 21. Results. We find that the polar fields near minima and the toroidal flux at the base of the convection zone are both highly correlated with the subsequent maxima of solar activity levels (r = 0.85 and r = 0.93, respectively). Conclusions. The Babcock-Leighton dynamo is consistent with the observationally inferred correlations.

Context. The latitudinal distribution of starspots deviates from the solar pattern with increasing rotation rate. Numerical simulations of magnetic flux emergence and transport can help model the observed stellar activity patterns and the associated brightness variations. Aims. We set up a composite model for the processes of flux emergence and transport on Sun-like stars to simulate stellar brightness variations for various levels of magnetic activity and rotation rates. Methods. Assuming that the distribution of magnetic flux at the base of the convection zone follows solar scaling relations, we calculate the emergence latitudes and tilt angles of bipolar regions at the surface for various rotation rates, using thin-flux-tube simulations. Taking these two quantities as input to a surface flux transport (SFT) model, we simulate the diffusive-advective evolution of the radial field at the stellar surface, including effects of active region nesting. Results. As the rotation rate increases, (1) magnetic flux emerges at higher latitudes and an inactive gap opens around the equator, reaching a half-width of 20 • for 8 Ω ; and (2) the tilt angles of freshly emerged bipolar regions show stronger variations with latitude. Polar spots can form at 8 Ω by accumulation of follower-polarity flux from decaying bipolar regions. From 4 Ω to 8 Ω , the maximum spot coverage changes from 3 to 20%, respectively, compared to 0.4% in the solar model. Nesting of activity can lead to strongly non-axisymmetric spot distributions. Conclusions. On Sun-like stars rotating at 8 Ω (P rot 3 days), polar spots can form, owing to higher levels of flux emergence rate and tilt angles. Defining spots by a threshold field strength yields global spot coverages that are roughly consistent with stellar observations.