In air transport network management, in addition to defining the performance behavior of the system’s components, identification of their interaction dynamics is a delicate issue in both strategic and tactical decision-making process so as to decide which elements of the system are “controlled” and how. This paper introduces a novel delay propagation model utilizing epidemic spreading process, which enables the definition of novel performance indicators and interaction rates of the elements of the air transportation network. In order to understand the behavior of the delay propagation over the network at different levels, we have constructed two different data-driven epidemic models approximating the dynamics of the system: (a) flight-based epidemic model and (b) airport-based epidemic model. The flight-based epidemic model utilizing SIS epidemic model focuses on the individual flights where each flight can be in susceptible or infected states. The airport-centric epidemic model, in addition to the flight-to-flight interactions, allows us to define the collective behavior of the airports, which are modeled as metapopulations. In network model construction, we have utilized historical flight-track data of Europe and performed analysis for certain days involving certain disturbances. Through this effort, we have validated the proposed delay propagation models under disruptive events.

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Considering the transformation in roles of existing air traffic management technologies, future flight operations and flight deck systems will need additional avionics and operational procedures that involve adaptive algorithms and advanced decision support tools. The main purpose of this article is to provide a theoretical framework for tactical 4D-trajectory planning and conflict resolution of an aircraft equipped with novel automation tools. The proposed 4D-trajectory-planning method uses recent algorithmic advances in both probabilistic and deterministic methods to fully benefit from both approaches. We have constructed an aircraft performance model based on Base of Aircraft Data 4 with high-level hybrid flight template automatons and low-level flight maneuver automatons. This multi-modal flight trajectory approach is utilized to generate cost-efficient local trajectory segments instead of solving complex trajectory-generation problems globally. The proposed sampling-based trajectory planning algorithm spatially explores the airspace and provides proper separation through local trajectory segments and guarantees asymptotic optimality under certain conditions. Moreover, we have integrated the cross-entropy method, which transforms the sampling problem into a stochastic optimization problem, rapidly converges on the minimum cost trajectory sequence by utilizing available flight plans, and reduces the amount of sampling. The integration of the proposed strategies lets us solve challenging, real-time in-tactical 4D-trajectory planning problems within the current and the envisioned future realm of air traffic management systems.

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